Dynamic scenario discovery under deep uncertainty: The future of copper

Kwakkel, Jan H.; Auping, Willem L.; Pruyt, Erik

doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2012.09.012

Cited by 97 publications

(60 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…This is evidenced by related work on Robust Decision Making (Lempert and Collins 2007;Lempert et al 2003;Lempert and Schlesinger 2000;Lempert et al 1996;Hamarat et al 2013) and Scenario Discovery (Groves and Lempert 2007;Bryant and Lempert 2010;Kwakkel et al 2013), which also build on EMA. In this paper, the approach was demonstrated on a simplified "toy" case.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 95%

Developing dynamic adaptive policy pathways: a computer-assisted approach for developing adaptive strategies for a deeply uncertain world

2014

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Sustainable water management in a changing environment full of uncertainty is profoundly challenging. To deal with these uncertainties, dynamic adaptive policies that can be changed over time are suggested. This paper presents a model-driven approach supporting the development of promising adaptation pathways, and illustrates the approach using a hypothetical case. We use robust optimization over uncertainties related to climate change, land use, cause-effect relations, and policy efficacy, to identify the most promising pathways. For this purpose, we generate an ensemble of possible futures and evaluate candidate pathways over this ensemble using an Integrated Assessment Meta Model. We understand 'most promising' in terms of the robustness of the performance of the candidate pathways on multiple objectives, and use a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm to find the set of most promising pathways. This results in an adaptation map showing the set of most promising adaptation pathways and options for transferring from one pathway to another. Given the pathways and signposts, decision-makers can make an informed decision on a dynamic adaptive plan in a changing

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 95%

Developing dynamic adaptive policy pathways: a computer-assisted approach for developing adaptive strategies for a deeply uncertain world

2014

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“…The basic idea is that the consequences of the various deep uncertainties associated with a simulation model are systematically explored through conducting series of computational experiments [14] and that the resulting data set is analyzed to identify regions in the uncertainty space that are of interest [12,15]. These identified regions can subsequently be communicated through e.g.…”

Section: Scenario Discovery: a Model Based Approach To Scenario Develmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Although scenario discovery can be applied on its own [15,35,36], it is also the analytical core of Robust Decision Making [13,[37][38][39]. Robust decision-making is a model-based decision support approach for the development of robust policies.…”

Section: Scenario Discovery: a Model Based Approach To Scenario Develmentioning

confidence: 99%

A scenario discovery study of the impact of uncertainties in the global container transport system on European ports

Halim

Kwakkel

Tavasszy

2016

Futures

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The global container transport system is changing quickly. Ports can be severely affected by these changes; therefore ports need insight into how the system might change and what the impact of this will be on their competitive position. Given the intrinsic complexity of the container transport system and the presence of a wide range of deeply uncertain factors affecting the system, we use an exploratory modeling approach to study future scenarios for the global container network. Using scenario discovery and worst-case discovery, we assess the implications of various uncertain factors on the competitive position of the port of Rotterdam. It is found that overall the competitive position of Rotterdam is quite robust with respect to the various uncertain factors. The main vulnerability is the quality of the hinterland connections. A modest deterioration of the quality of the hinterland connections, resulting in increased travel time, will result in a loss of throughput for Rotterdam.Keywords: scenario discovery, deep uncertainty, container shipping, global freight logistics IntroductionIn the past couple of decades, changes in the global container transport system have happened very rapidly. These changes have affected virtually all actors in the system, but the biggest impact has been on maritime ports. Ports have to be adaptive and resilient in responding to the changes in the global container shipping system. In today's globalized economy, ports need to ensure that they can function robustly, both as a transshipment node and as a gateway node for global trade flows. A failure to respond to changes in a timely manner often results in negative consequences for the port itself, as well as the economy of the region or country to which the port belongs. For example, the recent congestion at ports on the west coast of the US resulted in estimated damages for the economy of roughly 7 billion US dollar [1].Preparing a port for a wide range of possible future developments is a profound challenge. The global container shipping system is composed of many elements, with strong interdependencies. Often, small changes cascade quickly through the system, potentially resulting in substantial changes somewhere quite far removed from the initial small change. For example, recently Ultra Large Carrier Vessels have entered the market. Liner shipping companies have started to form alliances to pursue economies of scale. This in turn affects the frequency of port calls, the port rotation schedule, and the container volumes loaded and unloaded at each port. Changes not only take place on the seaside. Developments in the hinterland, such as the construction of new infrastructures such as road, railways, and intermodal facilities affect transport cost.The ongoing changes on both the seaside and the land size of seaports change the spatial flow of containers globally. The operation of the Trans-Siberian railways is an example of the importance of hinterland infrastructure on global container flows through ports [2]. A similar © 2016 Man...

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“…The methodological framework is built upon the concept of futures thinking, which makes it possible to 'constructively think about the futures' [88,90], capture topics simultaneously under conditions of deep uncertainty [91][92][93][94], and unlock the potential for paradigmatic change rather than just highlighting incremental improvements along current trajectories [45]. This approach makes the project better than previous fragmented approaches, in that the WS can be analysed as a complex system, providing at the same time deeper diagnoses and prognoses about the WS futures.…”

Section: Main Objective and Research Questionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Futures of European welfare models and policies: seeking actual research questions, and new problem-solving arsenal for European welfare states

et al. 2016

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The key research question is to discuss and elaborate the potential value added that futures studies could provide for European citizens and political, social and economic institutions. In the article the problems of European welfare policy issues are theoretically described and analysed. In the article broader framework to understand key policy issues of European welfare policy challenges are defined. A general analysis and generic model for European welfare policy is presented. The Authors also present futures oriented methodological approach to analyse and solve new challenges of European welfare policy problems. Key contributions of this article are: (1) Analysis of theoretical basis for construction of welfare models in future environments, (2) the relationship between research questions and topics in welfare policy planning and management, (3) the analysis of the relationship between futures oriented research questions, methodological stages and outcomes in the field of European welfare policy and (4) the concrete methodological proposal how futures research methodology can help to solve future puzzles of European welfare policy.

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Dynamic scenario discovery under deep uncertainty: The future of copper

Cited by 97 publications

References 24 publications

Developing dynamic adaptive policy pathways: a computer-assisted approach for developing adaptive strategies for a deeply uncertain world

Developing dynamic adaptive policy pathways: a computer-assisted approach for developing adaptive strategies for a deeply uncertain world

A scenario discovery study of the impact of uncertainties in the global container transport system on European ports

Futures of European welfare models and policies: seeking actual research questions, and new problem-solving arsenal for European welfare states

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