Dynamic selection of emergency plans of geological disaster based on case-based reasoning and prospect theory

Yao, Xin; Guo, Hao; Zhu, Jian Jun; Shi, Yong

doi:10.1007/s11069-021-05036-6

Cited by 9 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…Geological disasters occur frequently in the ree Gorges reservoir area of the Yangtze River Economic Zone. Yao et al [3] proposed a program for dynamic choice of geological hazard response scenarios on the basis of case inference and foreground theories [3]. Li et al [4] have established a monitoring and early warning platform based on SOA architecture.…”

Section: Related Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mine Geological Disaster Risk Assessment and Management Based on Multisensor Information Fusion

Zhang

Dai

2022

Mobile Information Systems

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Mining excavation is often the main cause of geological disasters in people’s construction activities. The geological disasters have the characteristics of large destruction, wide range of harm, and large loss. In particular, the collapse and slide geological disasters caused by underground mining are particularly prominent, and they have triggered a number of major natural disaster events. Therefore, it is particularly important to assess the exposure to geological hazards in mines. The purpose of this article is to study and analyze the assessment and management of the risk of geological hazards in mines based on multisensor data integration. This paper first introduces the process of multisource information fusion, and in the process of information fusion, the sensor needs to collect signals first, then preprocesses the signals provided by the sensor, and then analyzes the fusion process of D-S evidence theory algorithm and BP neural network algorithm in multisensor. Finally, the deformers in the study area are investigated by multisensor data integration techniques, the deformation and damage features of the deformers in the study area are evaluated, and the risk assessment and vulnerability evaluation of the key slopes are carried out. The experimental results of this paper show that according to the statistics of the distribution of slope disaster points, the geological disasters are mainly concentrated in 10–25°, a total of 361, accounting for 58.1% of the total disaster points. From the point density distribution, geological disasters are most concentrated at 20–30°, and the point density is 35 places/100 km2. The results show that in areas with large slope and height difference, it is easy to form air surface, deformation, and damage, resulting in geological disasters.

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Section: Related Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mine Geological Disaster Risk Assessment and Management Based on Multisensor Information Fusion

Zhang

Dai

2022

Mobile Information Systems

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“…The prospect theory considers the irrational behavior of experts in uncertain and risky environments during the evaluation process, which can more accurately describe the decision-making behavior characteristics of experts [25]. At present, the prospect theory has been applied to many fields, such as risk assessment [26], failure analysis [27], emergency plan selection [28], and so on.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Framework for Assessment of Logistics Enterprises’ Safety Standardization Performance Based on Prospect Theory

Yushuo,

Ling

2024

J. Oper. Intell.

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To evaluate the performance of the logistics safety standard system, we propose an evaluation framework based on the performance evaluation theory. First, we construct the performance evaluation indicator of the safety standard system for logistics enterprises. It is based on the existing performance evaluation indicator and combined with the construction goal of the logistics safety standard system. Second, we combine the triangular fuzzy number and prospect theory to determine the indicator state according to the characteristics of performance evaluation indicators. Then, we use the Choquet integral, fuzzy method, and Shapley value methods to evaluate the information, which considers the interaction of indicators. Third, we use the entropy and fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to determine the expert weight. The performance evaluation information of the logistic enterprise’s safety standard system is aggregated to obtain the assessment results. Finally, the proposed framework is validated by an example analysis. The results show that the proposed framework can be used to evaluate the performance of logistics enterprise safety standard systems.

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“…In order to minimize accident losses and casualties as much as possible, numerous scholars have conducted extensive research on emergency decision-making. Currently, various methods are employed for addressing such decision-making problems, including TOPSIS [6,7], entropy weight TOP-SIS (EW-TOPSIS) [8][9][10], the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) [7,[11][12][13][14], case-based reasoning (CBR) [15][16][17], etc. These methods have undergone continuous improvement and gained widespread usage; however, most of the relevant studies were conducted based on the assumption that decision-makers exhibit full rationality in their decision-making process without considering individual risk preferences.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Prospect theory, proposed by Kahneman [23] and Tversky [24], effectively captures the psychological behavioral characteristics of decision makers, such as their aversion to losses, distortion in probability judgments, and risk aversion, and explains the phenomena that cannot be accounted for by expected utility theory [25]. Scholars have further developed prospect theory [15,[26][27][28][29][30] to enhance its applicability across various domains, including financial investment [28], supplier evaluation [30], emergency decision-making related to gas explosions [31], geological disasters [15], and incidents like oil pipeline explosion accidents [32]. However, most existing prospect theories assume certain preferences on the part of decision-makers without fully considering the individual risk preferences of different decision-makers.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Emergency Decision-Making Method for Coal Spontaneous Combustion Based on Improved Prospect Theory

Zeng,

Jing,

Zhu

2024

Processes

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In response to the limited available information during the initial stages of coal spontaneous combustion and the influence of decision makers’ risk preferences on decision-making, this paper proposes an emergency decision-making method for coal spontaneous combustion that integrates grey correlation degree and TOPSIS with an enhanced prospect theory. Firstly, a normalized weighted evaluation matrix is established for the emergency response plan of coal spontaneous combustion, and the entropy method is utilized to determine the weights of various indexes. Then, considering the imperfect rationality of decision makers and their diverse individual risk preferences, they are categorized into three types: risk-seeking type, risk-neutral type, and risk-averse type. The corresponding risk coefficients are determined based on these different types. Positive and negative ideal solutions are taken as reference points, and matrices representing gains and losses are constructed. The grey correlation degree is introduced to calculate both positive and negative prospect values based on these matrices. Moreover, the prospect value for each emergency response plan is calculated, respectively, based on different types of decision makers, and the entropy method is used to assign weights to decision makers according to their respective risk preferences. Consequently, based on these prospect values and the weights, comprehensive prospect values for each emergency response plan are obtained and ranked to identify the optimal one. Finally, in order to validate the effectiveness of our proposed approach, a case study is conducted, and the results obtained from this case study are discussed and compared with those from other methods.

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Dynamic selection of emergency plans of geological disaster based on case-based reasoning and prospect theory

Cited by 9 publications

References 46 publications

Mine Geological Disaster Risk Assessment and Management Based on Multisensor Information Fusion

Mine Geological Disaster Risk Assessment and Management Based on Multisensor Information Fusion

A Framework for Assessment of Logistics Enterprises’ Safety Standardization Performance Based on Prospect Theory

An Emergency Decision-Making Method for Coal Spontaneous Combustion Based on Improved Prospect Theory

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