Dynamic Simulation of Industrial Synergy Optimisation Pathways in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region Based on Energy-Water Nexus

Abstract

Energy over-consumption, water shortage, and intensive carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are the three vital environmental issues in the context of global climate change. China is promoting the coordinated development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region as a national strategy project; this makes it more urgent to integrate water conservation, energy structure transition, and CO2 reduction within process of highquality development and green transformation.This study uncovered energy-water nexus patterns within Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, and carried out dynamic simulation research from the perspective of industrial synergy to facilitate optimization roadmaps. A Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Energy-Water Nexus Simulator is innovatively developed, which is based on the theories of input and output, system dynamics, and dynamic multi-object planning; and is committed to revealing the regional energy and water consumption, carbon emission, and economic system developing trends. Through policy mix including industrial structure adjustment, collaborative development, and environmental efficiency improvement, multiple scenarios' comparison can provide the optimization path of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei during 2020-2035 under overall control of muti-regional energy-water and carbon targets.The dynamic optimization decision-making model and policy simulator developed in this study is expected to be widely used in the sustainable development planning of Chinese inter-regional economy, and provide scientific support for regional coordinated development and ecological civilization construction.