Dynamical Coupling with Especial Reference to Markets Having Production Lags

Goodwin, Richard M.

doi:10.2307/1905478

Cited by 144 publications

(68 citation statements)

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“…So while Keynes's initial idea was visionary, it was not an idea that could survive within the then existing institutional framework that advanced economists on the basis of their writings. This worked against highly mathematical economists of the time, such as Richard Strotz (Strotz et al 1953) and Richard Goodwin (1947), who were developing that complexity vision formally. The problem was that most economists of the time felt uncomfortable dealing with the complex mathematics needed to formally deal with the complexity vision of the macroeconomy that Strotz and Goodwin were putting forward.…”

Section: Incentives and The Evolution Of Macroeconomic Theorymentioning

confidence: 99%

Economists, Incentives, Judgment, and the European CVAR Approach to Macroeconometrics

Colander

2009

Economics

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This paper argues that the DSGE approach to macroeconometrics is the dominant approach because it meets the institutional needs of the replicator dynamics of the profession, not because it is necessarily the best way to do macroeconometrics. It further argues that this "DSGE theory-first" approach is inconsistent with the historical approach that economists have advocated in the past and that the alternative European CVAR approach is much more consistent with economist's historically used methodology, correctly understood. However, because the European CVAR approach requires explicit researcher judgment, it does not do well in the replicator dynamics of the profession. The paper concludes with the suggestion that there should be an increase in dialog between the two approaches.

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Section: Incentives and The Evolution Of Macroeconomic Theorymentioning

confidence: 99%

Economists, Incentives, Judgment, and the European CVAR Approach to Macroeconometrics

Colander

2009

Economics

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“…The theoretical background of price expectations was laid by M. Ezekiel (1938), R. M. Goodwin (1947), M. Nerlove (1958), J. F. Muth (1961), R. E. Lucas (1976), etc. The methodological insufficiencies of the adequate measurement of the expectations were solved by G. de Menil & S. Bhalla (1973), D. K. Pearce (1975), G. W. Evans & G. Ramey (2006), D. Demery & N. W. Duck (2007), etc.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The insights into the extrapolative -regressive expectations could be found in the work of Goodwin (1947), where the price expectations depend on the historical prices of the commodity. The mathematical expression of the extrapolative -regressive expectations is provided in (3): …”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling Electricity Price Expectations in a Day-Ahead Market: A Case of Latvia

Bobinaitė

Zuters

2016

Economics and Business

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-The paper aims at modelling the electricity generator's expectations about price development in the Latvian day-ahead electricity market. Correlation and sensitivity analysis methods are used to identify the key determinants of electricity price expectations. A neural network approach is employed to model electricity price expectations. The research results demonstrate that electricity price expectations depend on the historical electricity prices. The price a day ago is the key determinant of price expectations and the importance of the lagged prices reduces as the time backwards lengthens. Nine models of electricity price expectations are prepared for different natural seasons and types of the day. The forecast accuracy of models varies from high to low, since errors are 7.02 % to 59.23 %. The forecasting power of models for weekends is reduced; therefore, additional determinants of electricity price expectations should be considered in the models and advanced input selection algorithms should be applied in future research. Electricity price expectations affect the generator's loss through the production decisions, which are made considering the expected (forecasted) prices. The models allow making the production decision at a sufficient level of accuracy.

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“…Alternative hypotheses have been suggested for providing observable proxies for expectations variables, especially commodity prices. These include the static expectations hypothesis (Ezekiel, 1938;Walsh, 1944;Bean, 1929;Smith, 1928), the extrapolative expectations hypothesis (Powell and Gruen, 1966;Goodwin, 1947) and the adaptive expectations hypothesis (Nerlove, 1956(Nerlove, , 1979Askari and Cummings, 1977;Nowshirvani, 1971). …”

Section: Chapter II the Rational Expectations Hypothesis In Commoditmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rational price expectations and structural change in the US broiler industry

Phillip

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Dynamical Coupling with Especial Reference to Markets Having Production Lags

Cited by 144 publications

References 0 publications

Economists, Incentives, Judgment, and the European CVAR Approach to Macroeconometrics

Economists, Incentives, Judgment, and the European CVAR Approach to Macroeconometrics

Modelling Electricity Price Expectations in a Day-Ahead Market: A Case of Latvia

Rational price expectations and structural change in the US broiler industry

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