Dynamical Extended Range Forecasting (DERF) at the National Meteorological Center

Tracton, M. Steven; Mo, Kingtse C.; Chen, Wilbur; Kalnay, Eugenia; Kistler, Robert; White, Glenn H.

doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1989)117<1604:derfat>2.0.co;2

Cited by 73 publications

(31 citation statements)

References 0 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…This result is in accord with the results of Tribbia and Baumhefner (1988) and Tracton et al (1989). The 10-day mean forecast loses skill at forecast day 8 or 9 (average of days 4-13) in spring, summer and autumn.…”

Section: Prediction Of the Northern Hemisphere 500 Mb Heightsupporting

confidence: 90%

“…The basic character of the variability in skill remains unchanged by postprocessing of model output, such as time averaging, ensemble averaging, correction of systematic errors and empirical orthogonal function filtering (Tracton et al, 1989). Therefore, the ability to predict skill in advance is of paramount importance, especially for extendedrange forecasts.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…On the other hand, Roads (1989) showed that skilful forecasts are obtained when baroclinicity in the initial condition is relatively small. Relationships between the skill of medium-and extended-range forecasts and the amplitude and persistence of the large-scale circulation anomalies have also been examined by several investigators (Branstator, 1986;Murphy and Dickinson, 1989;Chen, 1989a;Tracton et al, 1989).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Prediction of the 30-60 Day Oscillation with the JMA Global Model and Its Impact on Extended-range Forecasts

Tsuyuki¹

1990

Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Operational 15-day forecasts with the global prediction model of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) are utilized to investigate the relationship between the eastward-propagating 30-60 day modes in the tropics and the predictability of the northern hemisphere extratropical circulation for the period from March 1988 to February 1989 It is found that the global model successfully predicts the eastward-propagating 30-60 day modes both in amplitude and phase when they are significant in the observation. There is a tendency that the forecast skill of the 10-day mean 500 mb geopotential height north of 20*N for days 6-15 becomes relatively high in such cases during the warm season (May-October). In these skilful forecasts, wavelike height anomaly patterns are found in middle latitudes in 500 mb maps of the analysis and the forecast, and wave propagations from low latitudes are seen along these wave-like patterns.The above results indicate that when the tropical 30-60 day oscillation is well predicted the skill of extended-range forecast for the northern hemisphere tends to increase due to a successful prediction of the influence of the 30-60 day modes on the extratropical circulation.

show abstract

Section: Prediction Of the Northern Hemisphere 500 Mb Heightsupporting

confidence: 90%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Prediction of the 30-60 Day Oscillation with the JMA Global Model and Its Impact on Extended-range Forecasts

Tsuyuki¹

1990

Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…To examine the predictability of MJO during the boreal winter with the GCM, we have developed a climate version of the Dynamical Extended Range Forecast (DERF) experiment (Tracton et al 1989;Reynolds et al 1994). A DERF experiment aims at examining changes in predictability in time and consists of a series of experiments run out to a specific horizon (the original DERF experiment consisted of 10-day forecasts) that are reinitialized and repeated for a specific period.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sensitivity of MJO Simulation and Predictability to Sea Surface Temperature Variability

et al. 2008

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The influence of sea surface temperature (SST) on the simulation and predictability of the MaddenJulian oscillation (MJO) is examined using the Seoul National University atmospheric general circulation model (SNU AGCM). Forecast skill was examined using serial climate simulations spanning eight different winter seasons with 30-day forecasts commencing every 5 days, giving a total of 184 thirty-day simulations. The serial runs were repeated using prescribing observed SST with monthly, weekly, and daily temporal resolutions. The mean SST was the same for all cases so that differences between experiments result from the different temporal resolutions of the SST boundary forcing.It is shown that high temporal SST frequency acts to improve 1) the MJO activity of 200-hPa velocity potential field over the entire Asian monsoon region at all lead times; 2) the percentage of filtered variance of the two leading EOF modes that explain the eastward propagation of MJO; 3) the power of the wavenumber 1 eastward propagating mode; and 4) the forecast skill of MJO, maintaining it for longer periods. However, the MJO phase relationship between MJO convection and SST, as is often the case with many atmosphere-only models, although well simulated at the beginning of forecast period becomes distorted rapidly as the forecast lead time increases, even with the daily SST forcing case. Comparison of AGCM simulations with coupled GCM (CGCM) integrations shows that ocean-atmosphere coupling improves considerably the phase relationship between SST and convection. The CGCM results reinforce that the MJO is a coupled phenomenon and suggest strongly the need of the ocean-atmosphere coupled processes to extend predictability.

show abstract

“…Miyakoda et al [4] successfully used the numerical models to forecast 10-30d averaged blocking high pressure, whose work is viewed as the beginning of the extended-range numerical forecasts and facilitates the emergence of extended-range weather forecasts at major forecast centers around the world. Further researches were continuingly conducted [5][6][7]. Recently, multimodel ensemble techniques like super-ensemble and bias-removed ensemble mean based on TIGGE datasets are proved to be effective methods to improve the extended-range forecasting skill [8,9].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extended-range Probabilistic 500hPa Geopotential Height Forecasting over Northern Hemisphere Using Bayesian Model Averaging

Ji¹,

Zhi²

2018

dtcse

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. ECMWF, NCEP and UKMO EPS data from the TIGGE datasets were used to conduct the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) extended-range (10-15 days) probabilistic forecasts for 500hPa geopotential heights over Northern Hemisphere. The results show that the multimodel BMA method performed better than raw ensemble and the forecast skill varied as season changes. The forecast skill was the best in summer and worst in winter. However, the skill score of BMA with respect to the raw ensemble indicated that the improvement of the forecast in winter was the highest. Hence, the BMA method can improve the worse raw ensemble to a larger extent. In addition, BMA provided a full probability distribution, which depicted the quantitative uncertainty of the forecasts. With the increase of latitude, the uncertainty of the forecast was increasing.

show abstract

Dynamical Extended Range Forecasting (DERF) at the National Meteorological Center

Cited by 73 publications

References 0 publications

Prediction of the 30-60 Day Oscillation with the JMA Global Model and Its Impact on Extended-range Forecasts

Prediction of the 30-60 Day Oscillation with the JMA Global Model and Its Impact on Extended-range Forecasts

Sensitivity of MJO Simulation and Predictability to Sea Surface Temperature Variability

Extended-range Probabilistic 500hPa Geopotential Height Forecasting over Northern Hemisphere Using Bayesian Model Averaging

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About