2019
DOI: 10.1029/2018gh000157
|View full text |Cite
|
Sign up to set email alerts
|

Dynamical Malaria Forecasts Are Skillful at Regional and Local Scales in Uganda up to 4 Months Ahead

Abstract: Malaria forecasts from dynamical systems have never been attempted at the health district or local clinic catchment scale, and so their usefulness for public health preparedness and response at the local level is fundamentally unknown. A pilot preoperational forecasting system is introduced in which the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ensemble prediction system and seasonal climate forecasts of temperature and rainfall are used to drive the uncalibrated dynamical malaria model VECTRI to pred… Show more

Help me understand this report

Search citation statements

Order By: Relevance

Paper Sections

Select...
3
1
1

Citation Types

2
10
0

Year Published

2020
2020
2024
2024

Publication Types

Select...
5
2
1

Relationship

3
5

Authors

Journals

citations
Cited by 19 publications
(12 citation statements)
references
References 46 publications
2
10
0
Order By: Relevance
“…The system showed ability in predicting spatiotemporal variations in dengue cases and outbreak occurrence at forecast horizons of up to 6 months ahead. Predictions deteriorated, and uncertainty increased with lead time, as previously observed in other settings and diseases [ 36 , 42 , 75 , 90 ]. Forecasts improved, and the credible intervals decreased as time progressed and dengue data increased, likely due to an improvement in the associations learned by the superensemble.…”
Section: Discussionsupporting
confidence: 64%
See 2 more Smart Citations
“…The system showed ability in predicting spatiotemporal variations in dengue cases and outbreak occurrence at forecast horizons of up to 6 months ahead. Predictions deteriorated, and uncertainty increased with lead time, as previously observed in other settings and diseases [ 36 , 42 , 75 , 90 ]. Forecasts improved, and the credible intervals decreased as time progressed and dengue data increased, likely due to an improvement in the associations learned by the superensemble.…”
Section: Discussionsupporting
confidence: 64%
“…Multiple studies have highlighted the potential usefulness of seasonal climate-driven epidemiological surveillance for decision-making and planning [32,[34][35][36]. These studies have used subseasonal (i.e., between 2 weeks and 2 months ahead) forecasts to inform disease models and compute predictions of dengue risk.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
See 1 more Smart Citation
“…Mathematical models have been applied for various countries at varying resolutions, examples include sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries [15,[20][21][22], Ghana [23,24], Kenya [25,26], Mozambique [27,28], Nigeria [16,17,29], Uganda [30], South Africa [31], Zambia [32][33][34][35], and the Asia-Pacific Region [36,37]. In those examples, modelling was used to investigate relevant transmission dynamics, intervention effectiveness or for stratification.…”
Section: Geographic Specific Malaria Modellingmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Multiple studies have highlighted the potential usefulness of seasonal-climate-driven epidemiological surveillance for decision-making and planning ( Lowe et al, 2014; Lauer et al, 2018; Tompkins and Di Giuseppe, 2015; Tompkins et al, 2019 ) . These studies have used subseasonal (i.e.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%