Dynamics of electric bike ownership and use in Kunming, China

Abstract

The rapid adoption of electric bikes (e-bikes) (~150 million in ten years) has come with debate over their role in China's urban transportation system. While there has been some research quantifying impacts of e-bikes on the transportation system, there has been little work tracking e-bike use patterns over time. This paper investigates e-bike use over a six-year period. Four biannual travel diary surveys of e-bike users were conducted between 2006 and 2012 in Kunming, China. Choice models were developed to investigate factors influencing mode-transition and motorization pathways. As expected, income and vehicle ownership strongly influence carbased transitions. Younger and female respondents were more likely to choose car-based modes. Systematic and unobserved changes over time (time-dynamics) favor car-based modes, with the exception of previous car users who already shifted away from cars being less likely to revert to cars over time. E-bikes act as an intermediate mode, interrupting the transition from bicycle to bus and from bus to car. Over six years, e-bikes are displacing prospective bus (6555%), car/taxi (1524%) and bicycle (197%) trips. Over 40% of e-bike riders now have household car access so e-bikes are effectively replacing many urban car trips.

Differences of Cycling Experiences and Perceptions between E-Bike and Bicycle Users in the United States

“…From a broader view, the environmental impacts of e-bikes are dependent on the modes of transport they replace, since they are becoming a replacement for different types of vehicles [7,33]. E-bikes that replace non-motorized vehicle trips could result in a net negative impact on the environment, if ignoring the effect of food production to generate energy [6].…”

“…A very important distinction is that the Chinese e-bike market grew very rapidly through the early 2000s, and has since plateaued at around 30 million sales per year [5]. Those e-bikes are relatively low-cost (usually less than $1000 U.S.) and have evolved in form to resemble scooters that are rarely pedaled [6,7]. The market in Western countries has largely maintained bicycle-style form factors with much higher build quality and associated price, with mainstream e-bikes ranging from $800 to $4000.…”

Investigating Spatial Interdependence in E-Bike Choice Using Spatially Autoregressive Model

“…Table 4 gives the estimation results of the Bayesian spatial autoregressive logistic regression models for non-commuting trips. The contributing factors to is just intermediate mode for these travellers before buying an automobile, and they are likely to shift from e-bikes to passenger cars [4]. Therefore, appropriate policy initiatives should be implemented to prevent the transition from e-bike to passenger car.…”

“…Equation 4 can be summarized in vector form as: θ=ρWY. The product term WY represents the spatially weighted average mode share of e-bike over the travellers neighbouring each individual m; parameter ρ is taken to describe the effect of spatial interdependence on e-bike choice.…”

“…To develop effective policies and strategies for promoting e-bike usage, numerous studies have been conducted to investigate the characteristics of e-bike trips and mode choice behaviour [2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9]. E-bike choice models have been developed to link the likelihood of e-bike trips with various contributory factors, including socio-demographic characteristics, physically built environment, attitudinal factors, and trip features.…”