Dynamics of extreme climatic variables for viticulture in the main zones of ampelocenosis of the Krasnodar region

Abstract

Modern climate changes affect all branches of agriculture. Everywhere there is an increase in air temperature, changes in precipitation, an increase in extreme weather events. Since the productive lifespan of a grape plant is 30-40 years, it is necessary to assess climatic changes in order to create a variety adapted to changes. The purpose of the research is to assess changes in extreme heat supply and relative humidity in the main viticultural areas of the Krasnodar region. The average values of extreme heat supply and relative humidity variables of two climatological periods of 1961–1990 and 1991–2020, their changes over time and the course of variable’s anomalies of 1991–2020 compared with the average values of 1961–1990 are calculated. An increase in the absolute maximum air temperature by 0.2–1.6 °C for the period 1991–2020 was noted compared to the previous period, with the exception of Novorossiysk (decrease by 1.4 °C); an increase in the average absolute maximum air temperature by 1.5–2.5 °C, an increase in the number of days with a maximum air temperature above +35 °C by 1.0–2.3 days; a decrease in the average relative humidity of April–October by 0.7–2.7 % and an increase in the number of days with a minimum relative humidity of less than 30 % over the summer by 0.8–5.4 days. The variability of these variables over time for the period 1991–2020 is consistent with the change in the average. An increase in the absolute maximum was established (by 0.65–0.9 °C/10 years), the number of days with a maximum air temperature above +35 °C (by 0.8–1.1 days/10 years), the number of days with a minimum relative humidity of less than 30% over the summer (by 1.2–7.2 days/10 years); decrease in the average relative humidity of April–October (by 0.5–6.5 %/10 years). These changes indicate an increase in climate extremes and the frequency of unfavorable conditions for grapes in the summer, which requires an adjustment of the assortment.