‘Dynamics of Growth in a Finite World’ – Comprehensive Sensitivity Analysis

Vermeulen, P.J.; Jongh, D.C.J. de

doi:10.1016/s1474-6670(17)67333-6

Cited by 5 publications

(5 citation statements)

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“…Technical criticism included the claim that World3 model can be sensitive; relatively small parameter changes will in some cases significantly alter a scenario's trajectory (Castro, 2012; de Jongh, 1978; Vermeulen & de Jongh, 1976). Recreation of runs with the same parameter changes as in these critical studies confirmed that finding, although it also showed that the parameter changes did not avoid an overshoot and collapse pattern (Turner, 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Update to limits to growth: Comparing the World3 model with empirical data

Herrington

2020

J of Industrial Ecology

117

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In the 1972 bestseller Limits to Growth (LtG), the authors concluded that, if global society kept pursuing economic growth, it would experience a decline in food production, industrial output, and ultimately population, within this century. The LtG authors used a system dynamics model to study interactions between global variables, varying model assumptions to generate different scenarios. Previous empirical‐data comparisons since then by Turner showed closest alignment with a scenario that ended in collapse. This research constitutes a data update to LtG, by examining to what extent empirical data aligned with four LtG scenarios spanning a range of technological, resource, and societal assumptions. The research benefited from improved data availability since the previous updates and included a scenario and two variables that had not been part of previous comparisons. The two scenarios aligning most closely with observed data indicate a halt in welfare, food, and industrial production over the next decade or so, which puts into question the suitability of continuous economic growth as humanity's goal in the twenty‐first century. Both scenarios also indicate subsequent declines in these variables, but only one—where declines are caused by pollution—depicts a collapse. The scenario that aligned most closely in earlier comparisons was not amongst the two closest aligning scenarios in this research. The scenario with the smallest declines aligned least with empirical data; however, absolute differences were often not yet large. The four scenarios diverge significantly more after 2020, suggesting that the window to align with this last scenario is closing.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Update to limits to growth: Comparing the World3 model with empirical data

Herrington

2020

J of Industrial Ecology

117

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“…Then, there was the criticism of World3's sensitivity. Some researchers pointed out that relatively small parameter changes will in some cases significantly alter a scenario's trajectory (Castro 2012;de Jongh 1978;Vermeulen and Jongh 1976). It is true that World3 exhibits this behavior; however, that does not necessarily discredit the general validity of World3's outcomes.…”

Section: Misinterpretationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Five Insights for Avoiding Global Collapse

2022

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To environmental and social activists around the world. I have been thanked for my courage and persistence in my work on The Limits to Growth. I am grateful for these praises, but I do not deserve them. Although research and writing are excruciating and always thrice the amount of effort I thought they would be, doing so never made me feel unsafe. Environmental and human rights activists make enormous sacrifices protecting those with little or no voice. Each week, an average of four activists pay for this with their life, a third of which are indigenous people. The number of murders has been increasing for almost two decades. This is a humble salute to the bravery of all these environmental and social defenders. You are the unsung heroes of our time.

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“…The work "The Limits to Growth" [8] is considered a precursor of this topic [9,10], putting the spotlight on the finite capacity of the biosphere of being able to meet human needs at that rate of exploitation. In "The Limits to Growth" is presented a dynamic model of prediction ("World3"), which considers the interactions between humans and Earth in relation to the exponential growth of five main interacting variables [11][12][13]:…”

Section: Efforts For Going Towards Sustainable Development-history Inmentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic and Human Features for Energy and Environmental Indicators: A Tool to Assess Countries’ Progress towards Sustainability

2020

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Energy and environmental data represent fundamental information for the analysis of sustainable development. On the other hand, these aspects should be associated with economic and human dimensions in order to obtain a more holistic vision. From this perspective, some indicators are discussed and analyzed in this paper in order to assess the performance of a country. As regards the energetic aspects, the data of total primary energy supply and exergy losses were considered. The environmental aspects were taken into account by considering the greenhouse gas emissions and the particulate matter emissions. These energy and environmental data were put in relation to the GDP (gross domestic product) and HDI (human development index, a multidimensional index proposed by United Nations), respectively. So, two sets of indicators were introduced—the set E for economic properties and the set H for human aspects. A case study was conducted by analyzing a group of countries that meet two criteria: the same macro-geographical area and comparable numbers of citizens. The European area—in particular, its six most populous countries—was chosen. From the results obtained, it is possible to point out that some countries present different rankings depending on whether set E or set H is considered. Another important aspect discussed is the temporal evolution of the indicators (the interval from 1990 to 2017 was considered). Political decision-makers can be supported by the use of the indicators of set H in order to evaluate well-being related to their choices on actions related to the energy and environment. These indicators can be used both to analyze the trends of a country and to compare them with the performance of some other similar countries.

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‘Dynamics of Growth in a Finite World’ – Comprehensive Sensitivity Analysis

Cited by 5 publications

References 1 publication

Update to limits to growth: Comparing the World3 model with empirical data

Update to limits to growth: Comparing the World3 model with empirical data

Five Insights for Avoiding Global Collapse

Economic and Human Features for Energy and Environmental Indicators: A Tool to Assess Countries’ Progress towards Sustainability

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