Dynamics of Heteroscedasticity Modelling and Forecasting of Tax Revenue in a Developing Economy: A Review

Abstract

Tax revenue modelling and forecasting is very crucial for revenue collection and tax administration management. The dynamics of heteroscedasticity in the financial time series (tax revenue) in the domain of technique used to model and predict tax revenue in the emerging economy threw us to this investigation. The reviews are categorized into two the tax revenue and stock exchange index. Five factors were considered in this studies modelling, forecasting, linear model, nonlinear model and heteroscedasticity, it is on this note that we syntheses over 75 studies from the literature to consider the pattern of reporting tax revenue and stock market index. Thus, from the reviewed literature, we inferred that the pattern of reporting tax revenue data and the analytical techniques employed by most of these studies are responsible for the instability (volatility) in the financial time series forecasting. Also, results revealed that linear models are mostly applied to tax revenue data with fewer non-linear models, while combination and single non-linear models were mostly used for stock exchange data. Thus, we recommend the combination of linear and nonlinear models for both tax revenue and stock exchange data which can minimize the error of heteroscedasticity in the forecasting of tax revenue in a developing economy.

Fiscal Policy and Tax Revenue on the Growth and Development of the Ghanaian Economy: Adam Smith’s Classical Model of Taxation as a Referent Yardstick

“…The nature of tax revenues can aid in predicting a growth pattern (Yusof et al, 2020;Carroll & Goodman, 2011). The complete tax burden is significant in explaining discrepancies in economic growth.…”