Dynamics of HIV/AIDS in Turkey from 1985 to 2016

Abstract

In this paper, we formulated a mathematical model that studies the dynamics of HIV/ AIDS in Turkey from 1985 to 2016. We find two equilibrium points, disease free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium. Global stability analysis of the equilibria was conducted using Lyapunov function which depends on the basic reproduction ratio R 0 . If R 0 \ 1, the disease free equilibrium point is globally asymptotically stable, and if R 0 C 1 the endemic equilibrium point is globally asymptotically stable. We computed and predicted the basic reproduction ratios across all the years. It was found out that there were flaws in the exact values of R 0 which is related to the poor registration system of HIV/AIDS in Turkey. Hence, there is need for the government to improve the system in order to cover the actual cases of the disease. The increase of the basic reproduction ratio over the years also shows the need for the relevant authorities to adopt appropriate control measures in combating the disease.

AIDS-related deaths in Turkey between 2009 and 2018

“…In the ECDC 2019 report, it is stated that HIV/AIDS reports and death registration system data do not match, and this should be taken into consideration [ 3 ]. The Ministry of Health data, which is incompatible with the actual situation regarding HIV/AIDS in Turkey, has been shown in some previous studies, and it has been emphasised that HIV/AIDS records should be improved [ 8 ]. The Ministry of Health was asked to provide information about AIDS-related deaths via e-mail before this research.…”

An Approach for the Global Stability of Mathematical Model of an Infectious Disease

“…The mathematical models used for infectious diseases have evolved rapidly in recent decades. One of the reasons for this progress and development is the improvement of researchers' ability to collect data [5][6][7][8][9][10][11].…”

Mathematical Models in Healthcare

“…Özellikle bulaşıcı hastalık modelleri daha yaygın olmakla beraber kanser, diyabet gibi kronik hastalıklar için de ATS uygulamalarına literatürde rastlanmaktadır. 58 70 1986-2016 arası HIV insidansı ve R 0 hesaplamak için kompartıman modelinden yararlanmışlardır. Daha sonra, benzer bir modelle HIV farkındalık programlarının prevalansın azaltmasında etkili olduğunu bulmuşlardır.…”

“…Türkiye için yapılmış modeller: Türkiye'de hastalık modellemeleri yaygın olmamakla beraber literatürde bir kaç örneği bulunmaktadır. Sayan ve arkadaşları 70 1986-2016 arası HIV insidansı ve R 0 hesaplamak için kompartıman modelinden yararlanmışlardır. Daha sonra, benzer bir modelle HIV farkındalık programlarının prevalansın azaltmasında etkili olduğunu bulmuşlardır.…”