Dynamics of Pakistan’s Nuclear Doctrine: Implications for Strategic Stability in South Asia

Abstract

This article seeks to discuss Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine and its significance for strategic stability in South Asia which is challenged by complex interactions between different players in political, military, and technological dynamics. In particular, India’s easy access to technology and the challenges for Pakistan associated with fears of low-intensity conflicts due to Indian offensive strategies have resulted in dangerous instabilities. The Indian technological advancement has inevitably brought revolutionary changes in the strategic thought process thus continuously forcing Pakistan to modify or upgrade its nuclear doctrine. We argue that Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine is ambiguous, and the changing contours of Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine are within the framework of how technological advancement navigates strategic stability in the South Asian region.

Strategic Dynamics of Crisis Stability in South Asia

“…Former Indian Vice Admiral Premvir Das acknowledged that the limitation which “prevented us from being proactive is that we do not enjoy the type of asymmetry in military power against our adversary that we need to have” (Kanwal, 2011). The lessons learned from the Twin Peaks crisis resulted in the introduction of the Indian provocative Cold Start Doctrine responded by Pakistan with tactical nuclear weapons (Ali and Sidhu, 2021a).…”

“…On 26 February 2019, IAF launched a strike against an alleged training camp of JeM at Balakot (Jabba Top) in Pakistan’s province of Khaiber Pakhtoon Khawa (KPK). The strike was carried out by Mirage 2000 equipped with Israeli-built Smart Precise Impact and Cost-Effective (SPICE) 2 bombs with pinpoint precision, onboard GPS, and optical camera navigation systems (Ali and Sidhu, 2021a). The Mirage 2000 was accompanied by four Su-30s, two surveillance air crafts, Indian Netra Airborne Early Warning, and Control (AEW&C) systems, Israeli Phalcon Airborne Warning and Control (AWAC) System, and two IL-76s for mid-air refueling (Chengappa, 2019).…”