Dynamics of policy change in authoritarian countries: a multiple-case study on China

Abstract

Using evidence from China, this study proposes the conflict expansion model to explore how pressure for policy change can build up to overcome resisting force and stimulate a response from decisionmakers in an authoritarian context. Tracing the policy change processes of four national policies, this study finds that the social pressure mobilised by media reports focused on specific events is a major force for facilitating policy change in China. However, owing to institutional constraints, the influences of societal actors are sporadic, incident-based and varied by population. The policy change process is protracted and difficult when it encounters resistance from state actors who have multiple institutional access channels for influencing the decision-making process. The power distribution between the facilitating and resisting forces determines whether policy change proceeds quickly or arduously.

Narratives in an authoritarian environment: Narrative strategies, plots, and characters in Moscow’s public transport reforms debate

“…Several recent studies observe that public actors have an impact on the policymaking process in authoritarian states (Bondes & Johnson, 2017;Mertha, 2009;Petrov et al, 2014). Moreover, according to the research on the dynamics of policy change in China (Wu, 2020), we can see how, with limited success, the conflict expansion model works in an authoritarian context. Wu provides several examples of successful policy advocacy campaigns where social pressure, which comes from focusing events, facilitate policy changes by exposing problems, mobilizing social pressure, and ringing alarm bells for decision makers.…”

“…However, can policy discussions in authoritarian countries, such as China or Russia, focus on real problems and policy alternatives? Recent publications show that it is possible (Bindman et al, 2019;Chan & Zhao, 2016;Martus, 2017;Wu, 2020). We analyze such debates using the example of the ongoing reforms of the public transport system in the Russian capital, Moscow, by applying the Narrative Policy Framework (the NPF).…”

Travelling Far and Wide? Applying the Multiple Streams Framework to Policy-Making in Autocracies

“… 2021 ; van den Dool 2022 , p. 4), however, problem brokers are likely to direct their efforts to the leader because in many cases they cannot hope to get the leader’s attention via public debate on the problem. 1 Hence, successful problem brokers in autocracies are very likely to come either from the people around the autocratic leader (Wu 2020 , p. 247) or from the bureaucracy and public officials.…”

“…It might have become more difficult to control the media even for autocrats in times of social networks and the internet, however. For example, Wu ( 2020 , p. 243, 245) presents evidence that in some instances, traditional and new media were instrumental in bringing a problem to policy-makers’ attention in China (see also Ge et al. 2020 , p. 4; He and Li 2021 ).…”

Political institutionalization of conflicts: the possibilities of authoritarian and hybrid models

“…Однако из-за институциональных ограничений влияние социальных субъектов носит спорадический характер, зависит от инцидентов и варьируется в зависимости от населения. Процесс изменения политики является длительным и трудным, когда он сталкивается с сопротивлением со стороны государственных субъектов, имеющих многочисленные институциональные каналы доступа для влияния на процесс принятия решений [22].…”