Dynamics of the COVID-19 basic reproduction numbers in different countries

Yue, Tianxiang; Fan, Bin; Zhao, Yiyi; Wilson, John P.; Du, Zhengping; Wang, Qing; Yin, Xiaozhe; Duan, Xiaonan; Zhao, Na; Fan, Zemeng; Lin, Hui; Zhou, Chenghu

doi:10.1016/j.scib.2020.10.008

Cited by 14 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…The recent recurrent global pandemic events in which virus dissemination is not easily controlled have provoked social alarm among health administrations resulting in significant social and economic impacts (Yue et al, 2021). Epidemiological modelling is the most commonly used means of providing data to help policy-makers anticipate and design the best management strategies to control any outbreak.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Epidemiological modelling is the most commonly used means of providing data to help policy-makers anticipate and design the best management strategies to control any outbreak. However, the difficulties of predicting the course of a pandemic like the current one operate at three levels: the quality of the data; the suitability of the epidemiological models; and the intrinsic uncertainty of the epidemiological models (Yue et al, 2021;Poletto et al, 2020). At the beginning of this pandemic, many epidemiological models were used, such as SIR and its variants (SEIR, SITR, SIRS, SEQJR), that are based on differential equations (IHME COVID-19 Forecasting Team; Al-Anzi et al, 2020;Barbarossa et al, 2020;Goscé et al, 2020).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Modelling the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak: Assessing the usefulness of protective measures to reduce the pandemic at population level

Colomer

Margalida

Alòs

et al. 2021

Science of The Total Environment

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak: Assessing the usefulness of protective measures to reduce the pandemic at population level

Colomer

Margalida

Alòs

et al. 2021

Science of The Total Environment

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“…The novel severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus disease (COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2) has infected over 84 million patients worldwide, leading to 1.8 million deaths at the time of the submission of this manuscript [ 1 ]. With a basic reproduction number ranging from 1 to 2.7 newly infected individuals for each infected patient with COVID-19 [ 2 , 3 ] and a global case fatality ranging from 1.7% to 8.8% [ 1 , 4 ], efforts have been implemented by global health organizations to curb the spread of the virus and subsequent saturation of health care resources. These efforts include social distancing, mask wearing, travel restrictions, increased testing and avoidance of large social gatherings [ 5 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Educational Methods and Technological Innovations for Introductory Experiential Learning Given the Contact-Related Limitations Imposed by the SARS-CoV2/COVID-19 Pandemic

2021

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Background: Acute respiratory syndrome related coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has led to substantial changes in pharmacy curricula, including the ability to provide in-person introductory experiential practice experiences (IPPEs) to University of Colorado’s International-Trained PharmD (ITPD) students. Methods: The IPPE course for ITPD students was redesigned to offer remote educational activities in the health system setting and simulated practice and communication activities in the community setting. Students were evaluated via surveys regarding the perceived value of these changes, and changes in knowledge, skills and abilities before and after activities. Results: A total of 6 students were enrolled in the revised IPPE course. Students agreed or strongly agreed that the overall distance-based IPPE experience, the remote health system activities, and the community activities were valuable. Students also strongly agreed that course design successfully met course outcomes and was relevant to pharmacy practice. In terms of knowledge, skills and abilities, numeric improvements were observed in remote health system activities and community-based simulated patient interactions, but results were not statistically significant. A high baseline level of knowledge led to minimal improvements in perceptions of improvement in community pharmacy skills regarding pharmacy simulation software. Conclusion: Implementation of distance-based IPPE activities may be an alternate educational modality.

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“…More importantly, the public health authority's non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), even in the absence of vaccines and medical treatments, can significantly alter the value of parameters, drastically changing the transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic. [6,7] Given this real-world complexity, to what extent one can safely rely on existing SIR-based epidemic models to analyse the COVID-19 pandemic becomes a controversial issue. This paper addresses this problem by demonstrating that carefully calibrated epidemic models used in a particular epidemiological context can better capture potentially time-varying and context dependent parameters.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…More importantly, the public health authority’s non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), even in the absence of vaccines and medical treatments, can significantly alter the value of parameters, drastically changing the transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic. [ 6 , 7 ]…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A multi-stage SEIR(D) model of the COVID-19 epidemic in Korea

Shin

2021

Annals of Medicine

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Background: This paper uses a SEIR(D) model to analyse the time-varying transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in Korea throughout its multiple stages of development. This multi-stage estimation of the model parameters offers a better model fit compared to the whole period analysis and shows how the COVID-19's infection patterns change over time, primarily depending on the effectiveness of the public health authority's non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Methods: This paper uses the SEIR(D) compartment model to simulate and estimate the parameters for three distinctive stages of the COVID-19 epidemic in Korea, using a manually compiled COVID-19 epidemic dataset for the period between 18 February 2020 and 08 February 2021. The paper identifies three major stages of the COVID-19 epidemic, conducts multi-stage estimations of the SEIR(D) model parameters, and carefully infers context-dependent meaning of the estimation results to help better understand the unique patterns of the transmission of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) in each stage. Results:The original SIR compartment model may produce a poor and even misleading estimation result if it is used to cover the entire period of the epidemic. However, if we use the model carefully in distinctive stages of the COVID-19 epidemic, we can find useful insights into the nature of the transmission of the novel coronavirus and the relative effectiveness of the government's non-pharmaceutical interventions over time. KEY MESSAGESIdentifies three distinctive waves of the COVID-19 epidemic in Korea. Conducts multi-stage estimations of the COVID-19 transmission dynamics using SEIR(D) epidemic models. The transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 vary over time, primarily depending on the relative effectiveness of the government's non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). The SEIR(D) epidemic model is useful and informative, but only when it is used carefully to account for the presence of multiple waves and context-dependent infection patterns in each wave.

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Dynamics of the COVID-19 basic reproduction numbers in different countries

Cited by 14 publications

References 13 publications

Modelling the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak: Assessing the usefulness of protective measures to reduce the pandemic at population level

Modelling the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak: Assessing the usefulness of protective measures to reduce the pandemic at population level

Educational Methods and Technological Innovations for Introductory Experiential Learning Given the Contact-Related Limitations Imposed by the SARS-CoV2/COVID-19 Pandemic

A multi-stage SEIR(D) model of the COVID-19 epidemic in Korea

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