Dynamics of the Non-Performing Loans in Azerbaijan: Empirical Analysis

Abstract

Bank loans are the primary source of financing for businesses in the countries with non-developed financial markets like Azerbaijan.Thus, analysis of the dynamics of non-performing loans has u ermost importance in preventing banking crises in recession scenarios. This study aims to analyze the dynamics of non-performing loans in Azerbaijan. Employing three different estimation methods (FMOLS, DOLS and CCR), the study reveals a significant negative link between non-performing loan rates and macroeconomic factors like inflation and interest rates. There is no statistically significant relationship between nonperforming loan rates and real GDP growth in Azerbaijan. The lack of a statistical database on government support to the financing of businesses is a restriction of research. As a policy recommendation, it is proposed that government should improve regulations on collateralization of loans and banks' loan policies. This study's theoretical and methodological results can serve as a scientific source for further research and can be used in the monetary policy decision-making process.