“…This is a linear approximation of a nonlinear relationship, which is similar to the approximation a tangent line makes to a curve around the point of tangency, or a plane, that is tangent to a surface-which is our case. We are constructing a plane in three dimensions-one is the active cases, the other is the ratio, and the third dimension is 𝐻 𝑎, 𝑟 in (7). This is a local The model here says that on average, 13.027% of active cases become hospitalized above some number of patients, which depend linearly on the ratio r 60+ .…”