Dynamics of Vegetation Greenness and Its Response to Climate Change in Xinjiang over the Past Two Decades

Xue, Jie; Wang, Yanyu; Teng, Hongfen; Wang, Nan; Li, Danlu; Peng, Jie; Biswas, Asim; Shi, Zhou

doi:10.3390/rs13204063

Cited by 26 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 53 publications

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“…For example, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Kazakhstan promoted the reclamation and development of agricultural land, and after 2000 there were spatial changes in croplands, but the total area was relatively stable and remained almost unchanged [58,59]. The Ili Valley region of China, meanwhile, has experienced extensive agricultural development over the past two decades, and cropland growth has been largely stable [41,60]. This situation may also have implications for simulations based on longer interval land use data under a natural scenario.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial Simulation and Prediction of Land Use/Land Cover in the Transnational Ili-Balkhash Basin

et al. 2023

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Exploring the future trends of land use/land cover (LULC) changes is significant for the sustainable development of a region. The simulation and prediction of LULC in a large-scale basin in an arid zone can help the future land management planning and rational allocation of resources in this ecologically fragile region. Using the whole Ili-Balkhash Basin as the study area, the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model and a combination of PLUS and Markov predictions (PLUS–Markov) were used to simulate and predict land use in 2020 based on the assessment of the accuracy of LULC classification in the global dataset. The accuracy of simulations and predictions using the model were measured for LULC data covering different time periods. Model settings with better simulation results were selected for simulating and predicting possible future land use conditions in the basin. The future predictions for 2025 and 2030, which are based on historical land change characteristics, indicate that the overall future spatial pattern of LULC in the basin remains relatively stable in general without the influence of other external factors. Over the time scale of the future five years, the expansion of croplands and barren areas in the basin primarily stems from the loss of grasslands. Approximately 48% of the converted grassland areas are transformed into croplands, while around 40% are converted into barren areas. In the longer time scale of the future decade, the conversion of grasslands to croplands in the basin is also evident. However, the expansion phenomenon of urban and built-up lands at the expense of croplands is more significant, with approximately 774.2 km2 of croplands developing into urban and built-up lands. This work provides an effective new approach for simulating and predicting LULC in data-deficient basins at a large scale in arid regions, thereby establishing a foundation for future research on the impact of human activities on basin hydrology and related studies.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial Simulation and Prediction of Land Use/Land Cover in the Transnational Ili-Balkhash Basin

et al. 2023

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“…Dust emission can directly influence the dust aerosol concentration in the atmosphere [7,71,72], which is determined by the complex interactions among vegetation, climate, soil properties, and land use [13,44]. Previous studies have reported that the vegetation greenness increased in Xinjiang over the past 20 years [73][74][75][76][77], but some studies found that the vegetation degraded in northern Xinjiang, and the vegetation cover decreased in spring [75,78,79], which may be partly responsible for the increase in dust concentrations due to the increased spring dust emissions in this region [44].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial and Temporal Variations in Spring Dust Concentrations from 2000 to 2020 in China: Simulations with WRF-Chem

Wang

Kong

et al. 2022

Remote Sensing

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Dust emitted from arid and semi-arid areas of China is a main contributor to the global atmospheric aerosols. However, the long-term spatial and temporal variations in dust concentrations in China is still unknown. Here, we simulated the spatial and temporal variations in spring dust concentrations in China from 2000 to 2020 using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem). The results showed that the configured WRF-Chem model in this study reproduced the spatial patterns and temporal variations of dust aerosols. The annual mean spring dust concentration at the country level was 26.95 g kg−1-dry air and showed a slightly increasing trend in China during 2000–2020. There were clear spatial differences and inter-annual variations in dust concentrations. The dust concentration generally decreased from the dust source regions of the northwest to the southeast regions of China. Obvious increasing and decreasing trends in spring dust concentrations were identified in the regions of northern Xinjiang and Gansu and in the regions of southern Xinjiang and western Inner Mongolia, respectively. In May, the dust concentration showed an increasing trend in most regions of northwestern China. This provided the basic information for insight into the long-term spatial and temporal variations in spring dust concentrations in China.

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“…The Xinjiang oasis region's arable land area is expanding and has the greatest greening rate of any vegetation type in the region (J. Xue et al, 2021), which is primarily driven by an increase in irrigation inputs (Cai et al, 2021). Irrigation can stabilize agricultural yields by mitigating the detrimental impacts of excess heat and low precipitation on crop growth (Troy et al, 2015).…”

Section: Effects Of Agricultural Irrigation On Structural Overshootmentioning

confidence: 99%

Intensified Structural Overshoot Aggravates Drought Impacts on Dryland Ecosystems

Zhang,

Liu,

Cheng

et al. 2024

Earth's Future

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A favorable environment can induce vegetation overgrowth to exceed the ecosystem carrying capacity, exacerbating water resource depletion and increasing the risk of lagged effects on vegetation degradation. This phenomenon is defined as structural overshoot, which can lead to large‐scale forest mortality and grassland deterioration. However, the current understanding of structural overshoot remains incomplete due to the complex time‐varying interactions between vegetation and climate. Here, we used a dynamic learning algorithm to decompose the contributions of vegetation and climate to drought occurrence, trace the connection between antecedent and concurrent vegetation dynamics, thus effectively capturing structural overshoot. This study focused on the climate‐sensitive hotspot in Northwest China drylands, where significant vegetation greening induced by a warming and wetting climate was detected during 1982–2015, leading to soil moisture deficit and aggravating vegetation degradation risks during droughts. We found that during this period, structural overshoot induced approximately 34.6% of the drought events, and lagged effects accounted for 16.7% of the vegetation degradation for these overshoot drought events. The occurrence of overshoot droughts exhibited an increasing trend over time, which was primarily driven by vegetation overgrowth followed by precipitation variation. Although the severity of overshoot and non‐overshoot droughts were generally comparable in spatial distribution, the impact of overshoot droughts is still becoming increasingly obvious. Our results indicate that the expected intensified overshoot droughts cannot be ignored and emphasize the necessity of sustainable agroecosystem management strategies.

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Dynamics of Vegetation Greenness and Its Response to Climate Change in Xinjiang over the Past Two Decades

Cited by 26 publications

References 53 publications

Spatial Simulation and Prediction of Land Use/Land Cover in the Transnational Ili-Balkhash Basin

Spatial Simulation and Prediction of Land Use/Land Cover in the Transnational Ili-Balkhash Basin

Spatial and Temporal Variations in Spring Dust Concentrations from 2000 to 2020 in China: Simulations with WRF-Chem

Intensified Structural Overshoot Aggravates Drought Impacts on Dryland Ecosystems

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