Dynamics of water-energy-food nexus interactions with climate change and policy options

Abstract

Understanding the dynamics of water-energy-food (WEF) nexus interactions with climate change and human intervention helps inform policymaking. This study demonstrates the WEF nexus behavior under ensembles of climate change, transboundary inflows, and policy options, and evaluates the overall nexus performance using a previously developed system dynamics-based WEF nexus model—WEF-Sask. The climate scenarios include a baseline (1986-2014) and near-future climate projections (2021-2050). The approach is demonstrated through the case study of Saskatchewan, Canada. Results show that rising temperature with increased rainfall likely maintains reliable food and feed production. The climate scenarios characterized by a combination of moderate temperature increase and slightly less rainfall or higher temperature increase with slightly higher rainfall are easier to adapt to by irrigation expansion. However, such expansion uses a large amount of water resulting in reduced hydropower production. In contrast, higher temperature, combined with less rainfall, such as SSP370 (2.4 ℃, -6 mm), is difficult to adapt to by irrigation expansion. Renewable energy expansion, the most effective climate change mitigation option in Saskatchewan, leads to the best nexus performance during 2021-2050, reducing total water demand, groundwater demand, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and potentially increasing water available for food production. In this study, we recommend and use food and power production targets and provide an approach to assessing the impacts of hydroclimate and policy options on the WEF nexus, along with suggestions for adapting the agriculture and energy sectors to climate change.

Bridging the gap between the water-energy-food nexus and compound risks

“…It is especially important given the existing and projected scarcity of natural resources due to the magnitude and uncertainty of various stressors. Climate change has the potential to affect all three sectors within the WEF nexus, impacting water availability, energy supply and demand, and food production capacity [4,10]. The WEF nexus seeks to maximize synergies, which can produce mutually beneficial outcomes, and to minimize tradeoffs, which could lead to potentially non-optimal outcomes [9] and exacerbate inequities in access to resources [11].…”