Earlier collapse of Anthropocene ecosystems driven by multiple faster and noisier drivers

Willcock, Simon; Cooper, Gregory S.; Addy, John W.G.; Dearing, John A.

doi:10.1038/s41893-023-01157-x

Cited by 47 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 60 publications

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“…Our analysis found climate-driven mortality can drive shifts to algal domination even when in a moderately weakened state (i.e., nutrients and fishing are moderately high; Figure 2A ii) that would not be expected based on the deterministic skeleton. This novel theoretical result is related to recent theoretical literature on long transients (Hastings and others 2018, 2021), and importantly highlights the potential for unexpected results when considering noise in our mathematical models (Willcock and others 2023). Furthermore, our theoretical results are grounded in the geometry of our model and thus are highly general.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 77%

Towards a multi-stressor theory for coral reefs in a changing world

Bieg

Vallès

Tewfik

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Coral reefs are facing a constant barrage of human impacts, including eutrophication, overharvesting and climate change. However, research and management are just beginning to depart from a single-dominant-stressor paradigm and a holistic ecosystem-based understanding of these systems is still in its infancy. We expand on a well-known theoretical model to motivate an integrated multi-stressor framework for coral reefs by incorporating empirical evidence of multi-stressor impacts (overfishing, eutrophication and climate-driven mortality) as well as general ecological and theoretical concepts. We show that: i) the geometry of a simple, empirically-motivated model suggests nutrients and harvesting can operate similarly in driving shifts from coral- to algae-dominated reefs; ii) these impacts increase nonlinearly when acting concurrently, resulting in clear context-dependent management implications; and iii) this same geometry suggests climate-driven coral mortality (temperature-stress, cyclonic storms) can drive the presence of long transients and climate-driven alternate states, even in moderately-impacted ecosystems. These results imply that reefs that appear to be in a safe space may in fact be in danger of being pushed into a degraded algae-dominated state as storms and bleaching events are increasing in frequency and magnitude. Altogether, we find that responses in benthic composition as signatures of change to multi-stressors allows us to develop a predictive multi-stressor framework for coral reefs. In line with this theory, we detail empirical evidence from Barbados that highlights the context-dependent nature of coral reefs in a changing world. Our results present novel and generalizable insights into the functioning of coral reefs, that draw from classic theoretical and ecological concepts such as keystone predation theory, ecological succession and life history theory, as well as the emerging fields of long transients and early warning signals. By bridging coral reef ecology and general ecological concepts, we can better understand ecosystem functioning and resilience in these important yet highly threatened systems.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 77%

Towards a multi-stressor theory for coral reefs in a changing world

Bieg

Vallès

Tewfik

et al. 2022

Preprint

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“…Due to the small spatial scales and long timescales of oceanic motion, the detection and monitoring of abrupt ocean state changes through observations remains a challenge. Studies have revealed that interactions and combinations of processes and forcings require a downward correction of forcing thresholds for critical changes in Earth system elements (Lade et al., 2020; Steinacher et al., 2013; Willcock et al., 2023). Our study shows that the rising occurrence of abrupt regional ocean state changes due to single forcings call for a further downward adjustment of these thresholds.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

More Frequent Abrupt Marine Environmental Changes Expected

Heinze,

Michel,

Torsvik

et al. 2024

Geophysical Research Letters

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We quantify an elevated occurrence of abrupt changes in ocean environmental conditions under human‐induced climate forcing using Earth system model output through a novel analysis method that compares the temporal evolution of the forcings applied with the development of local ocean state changes for temperature, oxygen concentration, and carbonate ion concentration. Through a multi‐centennial Earth system model experiment, we show that such an increase is not fully reversible after excess greenhouse gas emissions go back to zero. The increase in occurrence of regional abrupt changes in marine environmental conditions has not yet been accounted for adequately in climate impact analyses that usually associate ecosystem shifts large‐scale variability or extreme events. Estimates for remaining greenhouse gas emission targets need thus to be more conservative.

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“…Intensification of land use, invasive species and pollution are driving both extinction and extirpation, altering the composition of local communities at an alarming rate [14,15]. Anthropogenic climate change is also shifting the ranges of species [16], and has the potential to significantly impact the geographical distribution of biomes in the near future [7], including risks of abrupt shifts [17]. These vegetation transitions will result in feedback through changed land cover, probably contributing to additional climate warming [18][19][20].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected future climatic forcing on the global distribution of vegetation types

Allen,

Hill,

Burke

et al. 2024

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

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Most emissions scenarios suggest temperature and precipitation regimes will change dramatically across the globe over the next 500 years. These changes will have large impacts on the biosphere, with species forced to migrate to follow their preferred environmental conditions, therefore moving and fragmenting ecosystems. However, most projections of the impacts of climate change only reach 2100, limiting our understanding of the temporal scope of climate impacts, and potentially impeding suitable adaptive action. To address this data gap, we model future climate change every 20 years from 2000 to 2500 CE, under different CO 2 emissions scenarios, using a general circulation model. We then apply a biome model to these modelled climate futures, to investigate shifts in climatic forcing on vegetation worldwide, the feasibility of the migration required to enact these modelled vegetation changes, and potential overlap with human land use based on modern-day anthromes. Under a business-as-usual scenario, up to 40% of terrestrial area is expected to be suited to a different biome by 2500. Cold-adapted biomes, particularly boreal forest and dry tundra, are predicted to experience the greatest losses of suitable area. Without mitigation, these changes could have severe consequences both for global biodiversity and the provision of ecosystem services. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere’.

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Earlier collapse of Anthropocene ecosystems driven by multiple faster and noisier drivers

Cited by 47 publications

References 60 publications

Towards a multi-stressor theory for coral reefs in a changing world

Towards a multi-stressor theory for coral reefs in a changing world

More Frequent Abrupt Marine Environmental Changes Expected

Projected future climatic forcing on the global distribution of vegetation types

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