Earlier ice loss accelerates lake warming in the Northern Hemisphere

Li, Xinyu; Peng, Shushi; Xi, Yi; Woolway, R. Iestyn; Liu, Gang

doi:10.1038/s41467-022-32830-y

Cited by 40 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 91 publications

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“…Together, our results illustrate how the ecological memory of ice phenology manifests in variable summer thermal dynamics (Dugan, 2021;Li et al, 2022). Ice phenology also had a continued effect through to spring conditions with longer spring mixed periods.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 53%

“…Instead, under-ice thermal dynamics are likely regulated by a combination of ice duration and ice clarity which determine the degree of radiation-driven convection and mixing (Bruesewitz et al, 2015;Cavaliere et al, 2021). Shorter ice duration was associated with lower hypolimnetic and epilimnetic average water temperatures, and thus resulted in cooler, well-mixed water columns that did not inversely stratify (Woolway et al, 2022). In Mohonk Lake, winters with shorter ice duration, under-ice had weaker inverse stratification and earlier ice-off.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

“…The first phase is characterized by release of heat from the sediments that has accumulated in the ice-free season. The second phase is typically characterized by inverse stratification; however, the duration of inverse stratification appears to be decreasing in lakes globally (Woolway et al, 2022). Predicting how ongoing changes in lake ice phenology will alter annual, whole-lake ecosystem function first requires an understanding of the drivers of trends and variability around those trends (Wilkinson et al, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Shortening ice seasons and changing phenology affect under-ice lake thermal dynamics

Oleksy¹,

Richardson²

2023

Preprint

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Temperate lakes worldwide are losing ice cover, however implications for under-ice thermal dynamics are poorly constrained. Using a 90-year record of ice phenology from a temperate lake, we examined trends, variability, and drivers of ice phenology. The onset of ice formation decreased by 2.3 days decade-1 which can be largely attributed to warming air temperatures. Ice-off date has become substantially more variable with spring air temperatures and cumulative February through April snowfall explaining over 80% of the variation in timing. As a result of changing ice phenology, total ice duration consequently contracted by a month and more than doubled in variability. Using weekly under-ice temperature profiles for the most recent 36 years, shorter ice duration decreased winter inverse stratification and extended the spring mixing period. These results illustrate how changing ice phenology can affect summer thermal dynamics.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 53%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Shortening ice seasons and changing phenology affect under-ice lake thermal dynamics

Oleksy¹,

Richardson²

2023

Preprint

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“…In total, 155,333 representative lakes simulated via ERA5 are investigated in this study. ERA5 global lake temperatures have been extensively validated in previous studies 43,44,81 . In this study I also investigate air temperature data from ERA5, which are used to compare with the lake surface temperature simulations.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The pace of shifting seasons in lakes

Woolway

2023

Nat Commun

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Lake ecosystems are vulnerable to seasonal thermal cues, with subtle alterations in the timing of seasonal temperatures having a dramatic influence on aquatic species. Here, a measure of seasonal change in temperature is used to describe the pace of shifting seasons in lakes. Since 1980 spring and summer temperatures in Northern Hemisphere lakes have arrived earlier (2.0- and 4.3-days decade−1, respectively), whilst the arrival of autumn has been delayed (1.5-days decade−1) and the summer season lengthened (5.6-days decade−1). This century, under a high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenario, current spring and summer temperatures will arrive even earlier (3.3- and 8.3-days decade−1, respectively), autumn temperatures will arrive later (3.1-days decade−1), and the summer season will lengthen further (12.1-days decade−1). These seasonal alterations will be much slower under a low-greenhouse-gas-emission scenario. Changes in seasonal temperatures will benefit some species, by prolonging the growing season, but negatively impact others, by leading to phenological mismatches in critical activities.

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“…The portion of incoming short-wave radiation, Qsin, reflected by the lake surface is controlled by its albedo. A shortened ice cover period results in a higher absorption of Qsin because open water has a much lower albedo (Li et al, 2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change impacts on surface heat fluxes in a deep monomictic lake

Ayala¹,

Mesman²,

Jones³

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Turbulent and radiative energy exchanges between lakes and the atmosphere play an important role in determining the process of lake-mixing and stratification, including how lakes respond to climate and to climate change. Here we use a one-dimensional hydrodynamic lake model to assess seasonal impacts of climate change on individual surface heat flux components in Lough Feeagh, Ireland, a deep, monomictic lake. We drive the lake model with an ensemble of outputs from four climate models under three future greenhouse gas scenarios from 1976 to 2099. In these experiments, the results showed significant increases in the radiative budget that were largely counteracted by significant increases in the turbulent fluxes. The combined change in the individual surface heat fluxes led to a change in the total surface heat flux that was small, but sufficient to lead to significant changes in the volume-weighted average lake. The largest change in total surface heat fluxes were in spring and autumn. Both spring heating and autumnal cooling significantly decreased under future climate conditions, while changes to total surface heat fluxes in winter and summer were an order of magnitude lower. This leads to the counter-intuitive results that in a warming world there will be less heat, not more, entering Lough Feeagh during the springtime, and little change in net heating over the summer or winter compared to natural climate, so that increases in the volume-weighted average lake temperature are largely due to reduced heat loss during autumn.

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Earlier ice loss accelerates lake warming in the Northern Hemisphere

Cited by 40 publications

References 91 publications

Shortening ice seasons and changing phenology affect under-ice lake thermal dynamics

Shortening ice seasons and changing phenology affect under-ice lake thermal dynamics

The pace of shifting seasons in lakes

Climate change impacts on surface heat fluxes in a deep monomictic lake

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