Early diagnostics of geomagnetic storms based on observations of space monitoring systems

Abstract

We address the problem of early diagnostics of geomagnetic storms based on the use of models of coordinates of movements of centers of solar coronal mass ejections (CME) and observations of their angular positions obtained from space monitoring systems. We propose a method for early diagnostics of geomagnetic storms, introduce a function to predict the distance between Earth and CME centers, and establish a decision-making procedure. We give an example of calculating the distance prediction function and implement the diagnostic decision-making procedure based on coordinate models and model observations of angular positions of CME centers. We determine the efficiency of the decision-making procedure for the algorithm for early diagnostics of geomagnetic storms.

Galactic Cosmic Ray Anisotropy Modelling

“…The solar corona image in the center indicates the sunward direction, the cross on the left marks the direction of the interplanetary magnetic field line, the cross at the top is the direction of arrival of cosmic rays producing vertically incident muons. The parameter δ indicates the relative change in the total muon flux; the distribution by directions is given in units of statistical error 09:00 UT on December 5, 2014 Note that methods of processing URAGAN hodoscope data have been actively developing, which can automatically identify these regions of increased and decreased fluxes [Astapov et al, 2017;Getmanov et al, 2017a, b;Getmanov et al, 2019;Dobrovolsky et al, 2019].…”