Early flood warning in the Itajaí-Açu River basin using numerical weather forecasting and hydrological modeling

Casagrande, Leandro; Tomasella, Javier; Alvalá, Regina Célia dos Santos; Bottino, Marcus Jorge; Caram, Rochane de Oliveira

doi:10.1007/s11069-017-2889-0

Cited by 35 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 59 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Also, in the context of operational use, investigations help to highlight the current system problems, whose must be considered when forecast results are to be used for decision making . Some examples of streamflow forecasting studies focusing on its results verifications can be found in recent literature: Bergh and Roulin (2010), Thiemig et al (2010), Schellekens et al (2011), Bao et al (2011), Addor et al (2011), Boucher et al (2011), Bourdin and Stull (2013, Alfieri et al (2014), Pagano (2014), Fan et al ( , 2015a, Siqueira et al (2016a) and Casagrande et al (2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 94%

Evaluation of upper Uruguay river basin (Brazil) operational flood forecasts

Fan

Pontes

Buarque

et al. 2017

RBRH

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

System for hydrological forecasting and alert running in an operational way are important tools for floods impacts reduction. The present study describes the development and results evaluation of an operational discharge forecasting system of the upper Uruguay River basin, sited in Southern Brazil. Developed system was operated every day to provide experimental forecasts with special interest for Barra Grande and Campos Novos hydroelectric power plants reservoirs inflow, with 10 days in advance. We present results of inflow forecasted for floods occurred between July 2013 to July 2016, the period which the system was operated. Forecasts results by visual and performance metrics analysis showed a good fit with observations in most cases, with possibility of floods occurrence being well predicted with antecedence of 2 to 3 days. Comparing the locations, it was noted that the sub-basin of Campos Novos, being slower in rainfall-runoff transformation, is easier forecasted. The difference in predictability between the two basins can be observed by the coefficient of persistence, which is positive from 12h in Barra Grande and from 24h to Campos Novos. These coefficient values also show the value of the rainfall-runoff modeling for forecast horizons of more than one day in the basins.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 94%

Evaluation of upper Uruguay river basin (Brazil) operational flood forecasts

Fan

Pontes

Buarque

et al. 2017

RBRH

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…In this paper, the probabilistic streamflow forecasts were generated using ensemble weather forecasts from two The MHD-INPE hydrological model is a regular grid-based model that uses a combination of the Xinanjiang model probabilistic approach and the TopModel formulation to simulate runoff generation. This model has been used in climate change studies (Mohor, Rodriguez, Tomasella, & Siqueira Júnior, 2015;Siqueira-Jr et al, 2015), land use and land cover change studies and for flood forecasting studies (Casagrande et al, 2017;Falck, Maggioni, Tomasella, Vila, & Diniz, 2015). For a detailed description of the MHD-INPE model, the reader is referred to Rodriguez and Tomasella (2015).…”

Section: Numerical Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Fan, Schwanenberg, Collischonn, and Weerts (); Fan et al (, ) assessed the performances of three‐month seasonal forecasts in the upper São Francisco, Tocantins and Doce River basins in terms of their ability to predict reservoir inflow for management purposes using different EPS numerical models. In terms of short‐term flood forecasts, Siqueira, Collischonn, Fan, and Chou () and Casagrande, Tomasella, dos Santos Alvalá, Bottino, and Caram () tested the feasibility of the regional Eta model EPS in the Taquari Antas and Itajaí‐Açu basins, respectively, and concluded that the flood forecasts can be improved by using the EPS technique, mainly in terms of the lead time.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probabilistic flood forecasting in the Doce Basin in Brazil: Effects of the basin scale and orientation and the spatial distribution of rainfall

Tomasella

Gonçalves

Falck

et al. 2018

J Flood Risk Management

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

We critically examined the performance of probabilistic streamflow forecasting in the prediction of flood events in 19 subbasins of the Doce River in Brazil using the Eta (4 members, 5 km spatial resolution) and European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF; 51 members, 32 km resolution) weather forecast models as inputs for the MHD‐INPE hydrological model. We observed that the shapes and orientations of subbasins influenced the predictability of floods due to the orientation of rainfall events. Streamflow forecasts that use the ECMWF data as input showed higher skill scores than those that used the Eta model for subbasins with drainage areas larger than 20,000 km2. Since the skill scores were similar for both models in smaller subbasins, we concluded that the grid size of the weather model could be important for smaller catchments, while the number of members was crucial for larger scales. We also evaluated the performance of probabilistic streamflow forecasting for the severe flood event of late 2013 through a comparison of observations and streamflow estimations derived from interpolated rainfall fields. In many cases, the mean of the ensemble outperformed the streamflow estimations from the interpolated rainfall because the spatial structure of a rainfall event is better captured by weather forecast models.

show abstract

“…Increasing interaction and exposure between human systems and river floodplains, as well as uncertainties in the context of a changing climate (Di Baldassarre et al 2013Baldassarre et al , 2018Hirabayashi et al 2013;Blöschl et al 2015;Winsemius et al 2016), highlight the importance of improving our capability to evaluate flood control measures and understand the associated changes on variables as water level, discharge, floodplain storage and water velocity. Large-scale hydrologic models are powerful tools for flood-related studies such as prediction of future flood risk under climate change (Hirabayashi et al 2013;Winsemius et al 2016;Ribeiro Neto et al 2016), flood hazard mapping (Pappenberger et al 2012) and flood forecasting (Alfieri et al 2013;Paiva et al 2013;Fan et al 2016;Siqueira et al 2016a;Casagrande et al 2017). Recent years have seen a major development of coupling strategies between hydrologic and 1D and 2D hydrodynamic models (Biancamaria et al 2009;Yamazaki et al 2011;Neal et al 2012;Paiva et al 2013;Schumann et al 2013;Seibert et al 2014;Hoch et al 2017a;Pontes et al 2017;Fleischmann et al 2018), which relevance was generally justified by a misrepresentation of flood dynamics in simpler models (e.g., flood peak attenuation due to floodplains, flood wave diffusion).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling the role of reservoirs versus floodplains on large-scale river hydrodynamics

et al. 2019

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Large-scale hydrologic-hydrodynamic models are powerful tools for integrated water resources evaluation at the basin scale, especially in the context of flood hazard assessment. However, recent model developments have paid little attention to simulate reservoirs' hydrodynamics within river networks. This study presents an adaptation of the MGB model to simulate reservoirs as an internal boundary condition, enabling the explicit simulation of hydrodynamic processes along reservoirs and their interaction with upstream and downstream floodplains in large basins. A case study is carried out in the Itajaí-Açu River Basin in Brazil, which has periodic flood-related disasters and three flood control dams. The model was calibrated for the 1950-2016 period forced with daily observed precipitation. The adjustment was satisfactory, with Nash-Sutcliffe metrics between 0.54 and 0.84 for the 11 gauges analyzed and with flood frequency curves also well represented. Simulation scenarios with and without floodplains and reservoirs were performed to evaluate the relative role of these factors on flood control basin-wide through evaluation of simulated discharges, water levels and flood extent. Itajaí do Oeste tributary and Itajaí-Açu mainstem present major floodplain attenuation, while in Itajaí do Sul and Itajaí do Norte tributaries the main flood control occurs due to reservoir attenuation. Downstream from the dams, results indicated that the reservoirs reach their maximum discharge reduction capacity for 5-to 10-year floods, decreasing it for larger floods. The developed model may be very useful for operational uses as flood forecasting and coordinated reservoir operation studies, as well as to enhance the comprehension of flood dynamics at basin scale.

show abstract

Early flood warning in the Itajaí-Açu River basin using numerical weather forecasting and hydrological modeling

Cited by 35 publications

References 59 publications

Evaluation of upper Uruguay river basin (Brazil) operational flood forecasts

Evaluation of upper Uruguay river basin (Brazil) operational flood forecasts

Probabilistic flood forecasting in the Doce Basin in Brazil: Effects of the basin scale and orientation and the spatial distribution of rainfall

Modeling the role of reservoirs versus floodplains on large-scale river hydrodynamics

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About