Early Warning For All With A Model-Of-Models Approach

Schumann, Guy J-P.; Kar, Bandana; Sharma, Prativa; Bausch, Doug; Wang, Jun; Glasscoe, Margaret

doi:10.1109/igarss52108.2023.10282256

Cited by 1 publication

(1 citation statement)

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“…The Model of Models (MoM) contributes to this need. By deploying an ensemble approach to integrate hydrologic models and flood products derived from Earth Observation (EO) data (i.e., optical and radar imagery), the model forecasts flood risk (probability of occurrence) globally every 24-hours at a sub-watershed level [10]. Based on the forecasted flood risk, early warnings along with potential exposure and impact information are disseminated to at-risk communities and stakeholders within high-risk sub-watersheds using Pacific Disaster Center's DisasterAWARE® platform to undertake preparatory actions [11].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing a Model-of-Models Approach for Global Flood Forecasting and Alerting

Kar,

Schumann,

Mendoza

et al. 2024

IEEE J. Sel. Top. Appl. Earth Observations Remote Sensing

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Flooding is a frequent extreme weather event that causes significant financial and societal losses. According to the International Disaster Database (EM-DAT), during January through July 2023, 87 flooding events caused about 2,000 deaths and $13 billion in damages, globally. Among the impacted, lowand medium-income countries with resource scarcity tend to experience high mortality, displacement of people, unmitigated damages, and long-term recovery. Currently, several hydrologic models and Earth Observation (EO) datasets are used to forecast flood severity and impacts. However, not all of these models are globally operational or publicly available. The variability in outputs in terms of accuracy, scale, and content also limits their usage for emergency response activities. The Model of Models (MoM), an ensemble approach, integrates hydrologic models and EO datasets (i) to forecast flood risk (probability of occurrence) globally every 24-hours at a sub-watershed level, which is used (ii) to disseminate alert messages and potential impact information to at-risk communities using the Pacific Disaster Center's DisasterAWARE platform. MoM is operational and designed to assist countries with flood risk management and mitigation by providing early warning and situational awareness information. An accuracy assessment of MoM from user-perspective across nine different flood types revealed that (i) the model reliably generated early warning for 100% of the flooded sub-watersheds in seven events, and (ii) during 2022 flooding, 61% and 89% of the flooded sub-watersheds that were identified to be in Watch and Warning categories in Pakistan and Chad, respectively, were detected to be flooding by the Copernicus Global Flood Monitoring system.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%