Early warning of telecom enterprise customer churn based on ensemble learning

Abstract

Analyzing customers’ characteristics and giving the early warning of customer churn based on machine learning algorithms, can help enterprises provide targeted marketing strategies and personalized services, and save a lot of operating costs. Data cleaning, oversampling, data standardization and other preprocessing operations are done on 900,000 telecom customer personal characteristics and historical behavior data set based on Python language. Appropriate model parameters were selected to build BPNN (Back Propagation Neural Network). Random Forest (RF) and Adaboost, the two classic ensemble learning models were introduced, and the Adaboost dual-ensemble learning model with RF as the base learner was put forward. The four models and the other four classical machine learning models-decision tree, naive Bayes, K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), Support Vector Machine (SVM) were utilized respectively to analyze the customer churn data. The results show that the four models have better performance in terms of recall rate, precision rate, F1 score and other indicators, and the RF-Adaboost dual-ensemble model has the best performance. Among them, the recall rates of BPNN, RF, Adaboost and RF-Adaboost dual-ensemble model on positive samples are respectively 79%, 90%, 89%,93%, the precision rates are 97%, 99%, 98%, 99%, and the F1 scores are 87%, 95%, 94%, 96%. The RF-Adaboost dual-ensemble model has the best performance, and the three indicators are 10%, 1%, and 6% higher than the reference. The prediction results of customer churn provide strong data support for telecom companies to adopt appropriate retention strategies for pre-churn customers and reduce customer churn.