Early-Warning Signals of Drought-Flood State Transition over the Dongting Lake Basin Based on the Critical Slowing Down Theory

Wu, Hao; Hou, Wei; Zuo, Depeng; Yan, Peng; Yu-Xing, Zeng

doi:10.3390/atmos12081082

Cited by 5 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…Generally, there were obvious DWT events in the four sub-regions of the two-lake region in the early 1990s and early 2000s. Wu et al [43] analyzed the circulation background of the DWT events in the Dongting Lake basin with respect to 500 hPa geopotential height and 200 hPa zonal wind. The results showed that the circulation backgrounds in 1961-1992 and 2003-2020 were favorable for less precipitation and thus caused the drought in the Dongting Lake basin, while the circulation background in 1993-2002 led to more precipitation and even floods in the Dongting Lake basin.…”

Section: Characteristics Of the Dwt In Different Sub-regions Of The T...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Early Warning Signals of Dry-Wet Transition Based on the Critical Slowing Down Theory: An Application in the Two-Lake Region of China

Yan

Hou

et al. 2023

Atmosphere

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In recent years, the dry-wet transition (DWT), which often leads to regional floods and droughts, has become increasingly frequent in the Poyang Lake basin and the Dongting Lake basin (hereinafter referred to as the two-lake region). This study aims to investigate the early warning signals (EWSs) for DWT events. Firstly, based on the standardized precipitation index (SPI) at 161 meteorological stations in the two-lake region from 1961 to 2020, the two-lake region is divided into four sub-regions by the Rotational Empirical Orthogonal Function (REOF) analysis method. Then, the occurrence time of the DWT events in each sub-region is determined by the moving t-test (MTT) technique. Finally, by using two indicators (variance and the auto-correlation coefficient) to describe the critical slowing down (CSD) phenomenon, the EWSs denoting the DWT events in all sub-regions are investigated. The results reveal that there was a significant dry-to-wet (wet-to-dry) event around 1993 (2003) in the two-lake region during the last 60 years. The phenomenon of CSD, where the auto-correlation coefficient and variance increases are found in all sub-regions around 10 years before the DWT, suggests that it can be taken as an EWS for the DWT events. This study confirms the effectiveness of applying the slowing down theory in investigating the EWSs for abrupt changes in the two-lake region, aiming to provide a theoretical basis for effective prevention and mitigation against disasters in this region. Moreover, it is expected to be well-applied to the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.

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Section: Characteristics Of the Dwt In Different Sub-regions Of The T...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Early Warning Signals of Dry-Wet Transition Based on the Critical Slowing Down Theory: An Application in the Two-Lake Region of China

Yan

Hou

et al. 2023

Atmosphere

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“…For complex dynamical systems in nature, the transition of a system from one state to another is a common phenomenon, which can be produced by external large-scale shocks or by minor perturbations (van de Leemput et al, 2014). The critical slowing down (CSD) theory is a concept in statistical physics that demonstrates that CSD phenomena occur near critical points when systems undergo phase transitions, which is manifested by the slowing down of the recovery of the dynamical system to its original state after a forced perturbation, which is typically observed in terms of variance and autocorrelation coefficients (Wu et al, 2021). The CSD theory has been shown to be a good predictor of the precursor information for the collapse of dynamical systems through several studies.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Critical slowing down theory provides early warning signals for sandstone failure

Tang

Zhu

et al. 2022

Front. Earth Sci.

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The critical point of rock mass transition from stable to unstable states is significant for the prevention and control of rock engineering hazards. This study explored the precursor characteristics of instability in sandstone containing prefabricated fractures and intact sandstone based on the critical slowing down (CSD) theory. The results demonstrated that as the input energy drove the dissipation energy dynamic system toward the critical point of two states, the CSD phenomenon appeared, which was manifested by the sudden increase in CSD time series metrics (skewness, kurtosis, and coefficient of variation) and autoregressive model metrics (variance and autocorrelation coefficient). The CSD characteristics of different dissipation energy dynamical systems were different, resulting in different times of CSD phenomena for distinct systems. In addition, the angle of the sandstone fracture affected the characteristics of the dissipation energy dynamical system and hence the appearance time of the precursor information. The precursor time of the sandstone containing 45° parallel fractures appeared earliest among all rock samples, and the ratio of the appearance time of the precursor point to the failure time of all rock samples reached more than 80%, which had good timeliness. The stress at the precursor point reached more than 80% of the peak stress, which corresponded to the plastic stage in the loading process, indicating that the CSD indicators constitute an effective monitoring index, which can provide an important reference for the stability monitoring and early warning of the field rock project.

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Early warning signals of grassland ecosystem degradation: A case study from the northeast Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

Wang,

Liu,

Zhao

et al. 2024

CATENA

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Early-Warning Signals of Drought-Flood State Transition over the Dongting Lake Basin Based on the Critical Slowing Down Theory

Cited by 5 publications

References 40 publications

Early Warning Signals of Dry-Wet Transition Based on the Critical Slowing Down Theory: An Application in the Two-Lake Region of China

Early Warning Signals of Dry-Wet Transition Based on the Critical Slowing Down Theory: An Application in the Two-Lake Region of China

Critical slowing down theory provides early warning signals for sandstone failure

Early warning signals of grassland ecosystem degradation: A case study from the northeast Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

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