Earthquake forecast via neutrino tomography

Abstract

We discuss the possibility of forecasting earthquakes by means of (anti)neutrino tomography. Antineutrinos emitted from reactors are used as a probe. As the antineutrinos traverse through a region prone to earthquakes, observable variations in the matter effect on the antineutrino oscillation would provide a tomography of the vicinity of the region. In this preliminary work, we adopt a simplified model for the geometrical profile and matter density in a fault zone. We calculate the survival probability of electron antineutrinos for cases without and with an anomalous accumulation of electrons which can be considered as a clear signal of the coming earthquake, at the geological region with a fault zone, and find that the variation may reach as much as 3% for νe emitted from a reactor. The case for a νe beam from a neutrino factory is also investigated, and it is noted that, because of the typically high energy associated with such neutrinos, the oscillation length is too large and the resultant variation is not practically observable. Our conclusion is that with the present reactor facilities and detection techniques, it is still a difficult task to make an earthquake forecast using such a scheme, though it seems to be possible from a theoretical point of view while ignoring some uncertainties. However, with the development of the geology, especially the knowledge about the fault zone, and with the improvement of the detection techniques, etc., there is hope that a medium-term earthquake forecast would be feasible. PACS numbers: 14.60.Pq, 13.15.+g 91.30.Px 91.35.Pn

Time of Flight Survey by Artificially Generated Neutrinos: A Novel Complementary Approach in Remote Sensing Geophysics

“…The technology would therefore require modeling multiple overlapping physical seismic zone configurations-therefore taking into consideration the complexity of the fault area. This inherent complexity has been adequately outlined previously for the Longmenshan fault zone [2] (Neutrino applications in Earth science).…”

“…As porosity relates to rock dilatancy and perhaps other, as yet unknown rheological alterations, a pattern can emerge from the neutrino oscillation that has a significant potential with respect to seismology. This has been proposed very recently [2] and shall be discussed (see below).…”

“…It has been suggested that, as a logical follow on from the above, that neutrino tomography can be looked at as a practical technique for analysis of earthquake prediction [2]. In this article, the possible use for neutrinos in predicting earthquakes is outlined in respect to design and overall practicalities.…”

“…Before an earthquake takes place, the variation in the matter-density or more exactly, the electron density of the fault zone can be outlined as a very significant factor. The relevant effects of these active structural alterations have been categorized into four aspects [2]:…”

“…This article reviews relevant literature in this field such as the use of neutrino oscillation tomography (NOT) as an essential backgrounder to the present proposition. This approach [1,2] can be combined with NTOF for more detailed structural analysis of the Earth's interior in general-not only around fault zones. By employing a scanning 'CT-like' approach as outlined in this review, data analysis may be synthesized via NTOF and NOT that potentially would allow for an improved understanding of rock rheology, dilatancy, fluid flow amongst other features in a direct real time fashion.…”