Earthquake recurrence inferred from paleoseismology

Atwater, Brian F.; Tuttle, Martitia P.; Schweig, Eugene S.; Rubin, Charles M.; Yamaguchi, David K.; Hemphill‐Haley, Eileen

doi:10.1016/s1571-0866(03)01015-7

Cited by 72 publications

(107 citation statements)

References 91 publications

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“…Estimated oblique convergence (030˚N -050˚N) of the central Cascadia margin at ~4 cm•yr −1 ( Figure 1) is associated with (1) episodic great subduction zone earthquakes (Mw 8.5 ± 0.5) with major-rupture recurrence intervals of 450 ± 250 years [7] [13] [14] [15] [16], (2) large-scale paleo-liquefaction features at 100 -170 km from the trench [17], and (3) nearfield paleo-tsunamis (10 ± 5 m) adjusted shoreline run-up [11]. It has been 316 years since the last Cascadia rupture at ~AD1700 [18].…”

Section: Central Cascadia Marginmentioning

confidence: 99%

Late Stage Interseismic Strain Interval, Cascadia Subduction Zone Margin, USA and Canada

Cruikshank¹,

Peterson²

2017

OJER

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Modern horizontal strain (2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015)(2016) measured along 56 new and 108 previously published GPS station baselines are used to establish the length (800 km) and width (300 -400 km) of the central Cascadia convergent margin seismogenic structure. Across-margin (west-east) annual rates of shortening range from 10 −9 a −1 at the eastern (landward) limit of the central Cascadia seismogenic structure to 10 −7 a −1 along the western onshore portion of the interplate zone. Relatively high shortening strain rates (10 −8 a −1 to 10 −7 a −1) are also measured in western transects from the northern (Explorer plate) and southern (Gorda plate) segments of the convergent margin, demonstrating that the full length of the margin (1300 km length) is currently capable of sustaining and/or initiating a major great earthquake. Vertical GPS velocities are averaged over the last decade at 321 stations to map patterns of uplift (0 -5 mm yr −1 ) and subsidence (0 -9 mm yr −1 ) relative to the study area mean. Along-margin belts of relative uplift and subsidence, respectively, are approximately associated with Coast Ranges and the Cascade volcanic arc. However, the vertical velocity data are locally heterogeneous, demonstrating patchy "anomalies" within the larger along-margin belts. A large coastal subsidence anomaly occurs in southwest Washington where the modern shortterm trend is reversed from the long-term (~200 yr) tidal marsh record of coastal uplift since the last co-seismic subsidence event (AD1700). The modern vertical displacements represent a late stage of the current inter-seismic interval. If the horizontal strain is considered largely or fully elastic, extrapolating the modern strain rates over the last 100 years show the accumulated strains would be similar in magnitude to the observed co-seismic strains resulting from the Tōhoku, Japan, Mw 9.0 earthquake in 2011. We believe that the central Cascadia seismogenic structure has accumulated sufficient elastic strain energy, during the last 300 years, to yield a Mw 9.0 earthquake from a rupture of at least one-half (400 km) of its length.

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Section: Central Cascadia Marginmentioning

confidence: 99%

Late Stage Interseismic Strain Interval, Cascadia Subduction Zone Margin, USA and Canada

Cruikshank¹,

Peterson²

2017

OJER

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“…Atwater et al 2003), hidden faults with potential for seismic reactivation in the contemporary stress field (see Sibson et al 2012 for a review and references) pose a significant hazard throughout the South Island.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Compressional reactivation of E–W inherited normal faults in the area of the 2010–2011 Canterbury earthquake sequence

Ghisetti¹,

Sibson

2012

New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics

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Earthquake ruptures of the 2010Á2011 Canterbury sequence exploit a varying mixture of optimally oriented newly formed faults and inherited discontinuities that are favourably oriented for reactivation within the prevailing tectonic stress field. Reinterpretation of subsurface data shows that the Torlesse basement is imprinted with an EÁW fault fabric inherited from Late CretaceousÁEocene rifting. The prevailing EÁW band of rupturing illuminated by seismicity lies at the southern boundary of a Late Cretaceous basin, terminating against the Banks Peninsula structural high. Analysis of a set of seismic lines in the Ashley River region (c. 30 km north of the Greendale fault) demonstrates compressional inversion of inherited high-angle EÁW normal faults and folding and detachment of the Neogene cover sequence, together with propagation of new faults through the Pliocene and Quaternary cover sequences. These structures provide an analogue to deformation in the epicentral region of the Greendale fault.

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“…Gouge coring (2.5 cm Atwater et al, (2004). Neskowin and North Beaver Creek data are from Peterson et al, (2010a) and Schlichting (2000).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To overcome these limitations some recent investigations have been redirected towards mapping paleotsunami sand sheets in small alluvial floodplains that are located on relative stable marine terraces (see Section 2.2 below). Atwater et al, (2004). Tsunami correlations (Tsunami #) in the central Cascadia margin are from Peterson et al, (2010a).…”

Section: Paleoseismic Evidencementioning

confidence: 99%

Proximal Records of Paleotsunami Runup in Barrage Creek Floodplains from Late-Holocene Great Earthquakes in the Central Cascadia Suduction Zone, Oregon, USA

Peterson¹,

Cruikshank²

2011

Tsunami - A Growing Disaster

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Earthquake recurrence inferred from paleoseismology

Cited by 72 publications

References 91 publications

Late Stage Interseismic Strain Interval, Cascadia Subduction Zone Margin, USA and Canada

Late Stage Interseismic Strain Interval, Cascadia Subduction Zone Margin, USA and Canada

Compressional reactivation of E–W inherited normal faults in the area of the 2010–2011 Canterbury earthquake sequence

Proximal Records of Paleotsunami Runup in Barrage Creek Floodplains from Late-Holocene Great Earthquakes in the Central Cascadia Suduction Zone, Oregon, USA

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