Earthquake Risk Assessment: Present Shortcomings and Future Directions

Crowley, Helen

doi:10.1007/978-3-319-07118-3_16

Cited by 18 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…Exposure uncertainty has previously been identified as an important area of research (Crowley, 2014), and we already introduced a framework for stochastic treatment of location uncertainty in a recent paper (Scheingraber and Käser, 2019). In our framework, locations of risk items without precise coordinate location information are sampled with replacement from a weighted irregular grid inside their corresponding administrative zone.…”

Section: Portfolio Location Uncertaintymentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial Seismic Hazard Variation and Adaptive Sampling of Portfolio Location Uncertainty in Probabilistic Seismic Risk Analysis

Scheingraber¹,

Käser²

2019

Preprint

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Abstract. Probabilistic Seismic Risk Analysis is widely used in the insurance industry to model the likelihood and severity of losses to insured portfolios by earthquake events. Due to geocoding issues of address information, risk items are often only known to be located within an administrative geographical zone, but precise coordinates remain unknown to the modeler. In the first part of this paper, we analyze spatial seismic hazard and loss rate variation inside administrative geographical zones in western Indonesia. We find that the variation of hazard can vary strongly not only between different zones, but also between different return periods for a fixed zone. However, the spatial variation of loss rate displays a similar pattern as the variation of hazard, without depending on the return period. We build upon these results in the second part of this paper. In a recent work, we introduced a framework for stochastic treatment of portfolio location uncertainty. This results in the necessity to simulate ground motion on a high number of sampled geographical coordinates, which typically dominates the computational effort in Probabilistic Seismic Risk Analysis. We therefore propose a novel sampling scheme to improve the efficiency of stochastic portfolio location uncertainty treatment. Depending on risk item properties and measures of spatial loss rate variation, the scheme dynamically adapts the location sample size individually for insured risk items. We analyze the convergence and variance reduction of the scheme empirically. The results show that the scheme can improve the efficiency of the estimation of loss frequency curves.

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Section: Portfolio Location Uncertaintymentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial Seismic Hazard Variation and Adaptive Sampling of Portfolio Location Uncertainty in Probabilistic Seismic Risk Analysis

Scheingraber¹,

Käser²

2019

Preprint

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“…The simplicity of this concept may be misleading, since often neither the overall number of buildings nor the proportions of the different building vulnerability classes are available, and exposure models are often spatially aggregated, that is, all assets in an aggregation unit (e.g. an administrative zone) are associated with a single geographical location (see, for example, Crowley, 2014; Silva, 2016). Furthermore, although exposure and vulnerability should be treated as separate concepts, in any practical application they are strongly interlinked.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Variable resolution probabilistic modeling of residential exposure and vulnerability for risk applications

2020

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In risk assessment, the exposure component describes the elements exposed to the natural hazards and susceptible to damage or loss, while the vulnerability component defines the likelihood to incur damage or loss conditional on a given level of hazard intensity. In this article, we propose a novel adaptive approach to exposure modeling which exploits Dirichlet-Multinomial Bayesian updating to implement the incremental assimilation of sparse in situ survey data into probabilistic models described by compositions (proportions). This methodology is complemented by the introduction of a custom spatial aggregation support based on variable-resolution Central Voronoidal Tessellations. The proposed methodology allows for a more consistent integration of empirical observations, typically from engineering surveys, into large-scale models that can also efficiently exploit expert-elicited knowledge. The resulting models are described in a probabilistic framework, and as such allow for a more thorough analysis of the underlying uncertainty. The proposed approach is applied and discussed in five countries in Central Asia.

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“…Earthquake hazard assessment calculates the probability of ground shaking across a region primarily in deterministic or probabilistic approaches. Deterministic approaches are scenario-based without uncertainties such as ground motion, in which a single seismic event is identified, whereas the development of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) takes possible uncertainties into account besides all potential deterministic earthquake scenarios with their likelihood of occurrence [15][16][17]. A PSHA may be carried out for a given region to reveal various levels of ground shaking with a corresponding exceedance probability within a time interval or a return period [18,19], by which an earthquake hazard map can be plotted based on the standard building codes in most countries, usually for the ground shaking to be reached or exceeded with a 10% probability in 50 years or an average recurrence of such ground motions every 475 years [13,20,21].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In addition, the exposure and vulnerability of people and property are also essential for earthquake risk assessment. Exposure evaluation captures the spatial distribution of the people and property exposed to the seismic hazards as well as their value, the development of which mainly focuses on the data collection and measurement of exposure [7,16,22]. Vulnerability generally describes the susceptibility of the exposed building stock to adverse seismic impacts expressed as the probability of loss ratio conditional on a group of ground-shaking levels [14,16] and existing studies develop around physical or structural seismic vulnerability [23,24].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Exposure evaluation captures the spatial distribution of the people and property exposed to the seismic hazards as well as their value, the development of which mainly focuses on the data collection and measurement of exposure [7,16,22]. Vulnerability generally describes the susceptibility of the exposed building stock to adverse seismic impacts expressed as the probability of loss ratio conditional on a group of ground-shaking levels [14,16] and existing studies develop around physical or structural seismic vulnerability [23,24]. Based on the studies focused on the above three main components, achievements have been further made in the creation of software tools and platforms (i.e., HAZUS, OpenQuick, RISKPLAN, and EconoMe) to perform earthquake hazard and risk assessment at a national, continental, or global scale [19,25,26].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Using RISKPLAN for Earthquake Risk Assessment in Sichuan Province, China

Yan

Seeland

2019

Sustainability

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Sichuan Province of China is a prominent population and economic growth center as well as an earthquake-stricken region. A sound understanding of the seismic risk that Sichuan Province is facing is useful to raise risk awareness, achieve disaster risk reduction (DRR), and guarantee sustainable socio-economic development. Earthquake risk assessment is the first step in these efforts. This study strives to demonstrate the feasibility of applying an integrated earthquake risk assessment in Sichuan Province of China using RISKPLAN, a risk evaluation tool of natural hazards developed by the Swiss Federal Office for the Environment (FOEN). The time and location of seismic events in Sichuan were incorporated into three scenarios and calculated with respect to expected losses under different assumed conditions of earthquake occurrence, such as the recurrence interval and magnitude. Furthermore, cost-effectiveness calculations were made regarding the various possible scenarios to assess the ratio of expected losses and the required financial means for prevention and mitigation measures against the effects of seismic activities in Sichuan. Our results show that when the magnitude of the seismic event is greater than expected, reduction and mitigation investments for a possible earthquake risk will be all the more rewarding.

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Earthquake Risk Assessment: Present Shortcomings and Future Directions

Cited by 18 publications

References 26 publications

Spatial Seismic Hazard Variation and Adaptive Sampling of Portfolio Location Uncertainty in Probabilistic Seismic Risk Analysis

Spatial Seismic Hazard Variation and Adaptive Sampling of Portfolio Location Uncertainty in Probabilistic Seismic Risk Analysis

Variable resolution probabilistic modeling of residential exposure and vulnerability for risk applications

Using RISKPLAN for Earthquake Risk Assessment in Sichuan Province, China

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