Earthquake risk in reinforced concrete buildings during aftershock sequences based on period elongation and operational earthquake forecasting

Trevlopoulos, Konstantinos; Guéguen, Philippe; Helmstetter, Agnès; Cotton, Fabrice

doi:10.1016/j.strusafe.2020.101922

Cited by 29 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 61 publications

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“…1) as the misfit between the capacity curves of a given structure for a single earthquake (i.e., single ADRS model) and the median response to several earthquakes (i.e., building-specific ADRS model). Within-building variability accounts for (1) the timevarying co-seismic dynamic properties related to the cumulative effect of earthquakes and the related structural ageing (Astorga et al 2018(Astorga et al , 2019Trevlopoulos et al 2020) and ( 2) IM efficiency obtained by measuring the variability of the building response (i.e., EDP given IM) around the regression on the IM values. Post-seismic visual inspections of ANX, THU and IWK reported slight to moderate structural damage after the 2011 Tohoku earthquake.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The variability of experimental capacity curve models for existing buildings and their within-building and between-building components.

Ghimire

Guéguen

2023

Preprint

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In this study, accelerometric data from seven Japanese buildings under long-term monitoring were analysed to explore the variability of the buildings’ co-seismic response over time and its within- and between-building components, using co-seismic capacity curves developed in acceleration-displacement-response-spectrum format. The data include the 2011 Tohoku Mw9.1 earthquake, which caused building damage of different levels of severity, and the time-varying actual capacity curves were analysed considering earthquakes before and after 2011. We observed that the initial slope of the capacity curves reflects the amount of damage. The between-building and within-building components of the variability are discussed by comparing a single building and several buildings in the same class for several earthquakes. Finally, the epistemic uncertainty of seismic risk assessment studies is discussed in relation to the selection of a generic capacity model for all buildings in a single class.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The variability of experimental capacity curve models for existing buildings and their within-building and between-building components.

Ghimire

Guéguen

2023

Preprint

Self Cite

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“…(25). The annual damage probability in step ( 6) is calculated based on the assumption that the annual damage of the structure satisfies the homogeneous Poisson model, which has been used by many scholars (Jalayer and Ebrahimian 2017;Trevlopoulos et al 2020) to represent the timevarying damage of a structure. The homogeneous Poisson model assumes that the structure is damaged to a certain extent after one earthquake swarm (mainshock + multiple aftershocks), but is restored to the initial damage state before the next earthquake swarm.…”

Section: Pre-mainshock Mainshock-aftershock Risk Analysis Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seismic Risk Analysis of Regular Girder Bridge Subjected to Mainshock-Aftershock Sequences

Li-bo

Zhou

2021

Preprint

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When a structure is subjected to an earthquake sequence, the high rate of aftershocks after the mainshock and cumulative damage caused by the earthquake sequence make the structure very dangerous. Considering the uncertainty in seismic occurrences, structural damage is often predicted using a seismic risk analysis. This approach has become a main measure for seismic disaster assessment, and provides a reasonable reference for post-earthquake emergency response decision-making and pre-earthquake seismic design. Therefore, it is of great significance to study a seismic risk analysis considering the effect(s) of aftershocks. In this study, the aftershock hazard is estimated for a post-mainshock environment based on an aftershock probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. Considering the uncertainty regarding the mainshock and aftershock occurrences, in addition to the functional relationship between the mainshock and aftershock parameters, the aftershock seismic hazard is estimated for the pre-mainshock environment. The mainshock fragility and aftershock fragility of regular girder bridges are evaluated based on the Kunnath damage model. Finally, considering the damage accumulation in bridge structures, the seismic hazard and seismic fragility are combined to establish a post-mainshock aftershock seismic risk framework and pre-mainshock mainshock-aftershock seismic risk analysis framework. Based on these, the mainshock risk and mainshock-aftershock risk are compared to verify the importance of considering the aftershock effects in seismic disaster assessments. The aftershock risks for the bridges of different post-mainshock damage states are compared, and the influence of the initial damage after the mainshock on the damage to the structure in the post-mainshock environment is studied.

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“…Nanjo et al (2022) further improved FTLS by combining local aseismic slips with stress changes. In addition, the idea of a risk classification traffic light system was also widely applied in research of induced earthquake risk control (Jiang et al, 2021b), aftershock hazard analysis (Gulia et al, 2020), and risk assessment of cumulative structural damage caused by aftershocks (Trevlopoulos et al, 2020). However, there is still room for further development in the technical route of strong aftershock forecasting.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Strong aftershocks traffic light system: A case study of the 8 January 2022 MS6.9 Menyuan earthquake, Qinghai Province, China

Yin²,

Jiang³

et al. 2023

Front. Earth Sci.

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Strong aftershocks, especially the disaster-causing M≥5.0 kind, are a key concern for mitigation of seismic risks because they often lead to superimposed earthquake damage. However, the real-time forecasting results of the traditional probability prediction models based on statistics are usually far from accurate and therefore unsatisfactory. Borrowing an idea from the foreshock traffic light system (FTLS), which is based on observations of decreasing b-values or increasing differential stress just before a strong aftershock, we constructed a strong aftershock traffic light system (SATLS) that uses data-driven technology to improve the reliability of time sequence b-value calculations, and analyzed the b-value variations of strong aftershocks in the China continent. We applied this system to the MS6.9 Menyuan earthquake occurred on 8 January 2022. The earthquake occurrence rates before the largest aftershock (MS5.2) forecast by the Omi-R-J model were too low, although the model could accurately forecast aftershock rates for each magnitude interval in most time-periods. However, reliable b-values can be calculated using the time-sequence b-value data-driven (TbDD) method, and the results showed that the b-values continued declining from 1.3 days before the MS5.2 aftershock and gradually recovered afterward. This would suggest that the stress evolution in the focal area can provide data for deciding when to post risk alerts of strong aftershocks. In the process of building the SATLS, we studied thirty-four M≥6.0 intraplate earthquake sequences in the China continent and concluded that the differences between the b-values of the aftershock sequences and of the background events, △b = bafter - bbg = ±0.1, could be used as thresholds to determine whether M≥5.0 aftershocks would occur. The △b value obtained using the events before the MS5.2 aftershock of the MS6.9 Menyuan sequence was about -0.04, which would have caused the SATLS to declare a yellow alert, but there would have been some gap expected before a red alert was triggered by the b-value difference derived from the events associated with this strong aftershock. To accurately forecast a strong aftershock of M≥5.0, a deeper understanding of the true b-value and a detailed description of the stress evolution state in the source area is necessary.

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Earthquake risk in reinforced concrete buildings during aftershock sequences based on period elongation and operational earthquake forecasting

Cited by 29 publications

References 61 publications

The variability of experimental capacity curve models for existing buildings and their within-building and between-building components.

The variability of experimental capacity curve models for existing buildings and their within-building and between-building components.

Seismic Risk Analysis of Regular Girder Bridge Subjected to Mainshock-Aftershock Sequences

Strong aftershocks traffic light system: A case study of the 8 January 2022 MS6.9 Menyuan earthquake, Qinghai Province, China

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