East German Fertility After Unification: Crisis or Adaptation?

Conrad, Christoph; Lechner, Michael; Werner, Welf

doi:10.2307/2137438

Cited by 99 publications

(64 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…The data for Germany hide persistent contrasts in fertility patterns and their underlying institutional conditions between eastern and western part of the country (Dorbritz 2008;Cassens et al 2009;Kreyenfeld 2010;Basten et al 2011;Goldstein and Kreyenfeld 2011;. However, differences in fertility levels diminished after the post-unification "demographic shocks" in eastern Germany (Conrad et al 1996) when a record low TFR level of 0.77 was reached in 1993-94 (Goldstein and Kreyenfeld 2011).…”

Section: Germanymentioning

confidence: 97%

Future Fertility in Low Fertility Countries

Basten

Sobotka

Zeman

et al. 2014

World Population and Human Capital in the Twenty-First Century

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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in Future Fertility in Low Fertility Countries AbstractThis paper discusses results of the global survey of experts on the future of low fertility in low-fertility countries. The survey was coordinated by the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital as a part of an effort to produce global argumentbased population projections by age, sex and level of education. First we give an overview of fertility changes in major low-fertility regions. Next we outline main theoretical arguments and review a wide range of factors contributing to fertility change and variation in contemporary low-fertility settings. Subsequently, we present survey results based on 184 assessments of over 170 experts analysing 41 countries with currently low or aroundreplacement fertility and Israel. These experts provided forecasts of period total fertility rate (TFR) in 2030 and 2050, estimated 80% confidence interval of their forecast and assessed the validity and potential impact on fertility of 46 factors. We also compare expert-derived projections of the TFR trends with the forecasts formulated by the UN World Population Prospects in 2010. The survey results in combination with the feedback provided by the invited experts then serve as a basis for formulating a set of projection scenarios for all low fertility countries up until 2050, which are additionally expanded (in a simpler form) through 2200. We present these scenarios and discuss past changes in fertility differences by level of education and their potential future trends in main regions. Presented analyses and projections indicate that a global convergence of fertility to around replacement level, envisioned in the UN projections, appears unlikely. Continuing differentiation combined with partial convergence in fertility towards lower levels is suggested as a more plausible scenario, with East Asia (including China) as well as Russia expected to have sustained very low fertility below 1.5 through 2050.

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Section: Germanymentioning

confidence: 97%

Future Fertility in Low Fertility Countries

Basten

Sobotka

Zeman

et al. 2014

World Population and Human Capital in the Twenty-First Century

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“…It shows the increase of the fertility rate in the GDR following the policy reforms of the early 1970s and the collapse of GDR birth rates after re-unification. The drop in East-German fertility levels was partly due to a change in the East-German states towards higher ages at first birth (Witte and Wagner 1995;Conrad et al 1996;Kreyenfeld 2003). The most prominent explanation for the fertility decline in East Germany, however, has been the difficulty of combining family and employment under the new Western system (Schneider et al 1995).…”

Section: Family and Fertility Policies In The German Democratic Repubmentioning

confidence: 99%

Gender roles and values of children: Childless Couples in East and West Germany

Henz¹

2008

DemRes

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“…Notable among these idiosyncratic explanations is the contrast of East and West Germany postunification (Kreyenfeld 2003) and whether fertility decline in East Germany was fueled mainly by the economic crisis or whether it was more of an adaptation in evolving toward West Germany (Conrad et al 1996, Eberstadt 1994, Witte & Wagner 1995. According to the crisis argument, the upheavals caused by the fall of communism had social consequences (Caldwell 2004), including an insecurity about the future or personal disorientation in addition to economic hardship (Philipov 2002).…”

Section: Contributions Stressing Economic Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Low Fertility at the Turn of the Twenty-First Century

2006

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In the past few decades, demographic concerns have shifted from rapid population growth fueled by high fertility to concerns of population decline produced by very low, sub-replacement fertility levels. Once considered a problem unique to Europe or developed nations, concerns now center on the global spread of low fertility. Nearly half of the world's population now lives in countries with fertility at or below replacement levels. Further, by the mid-twenty-first century three of four countries now described as developing are projected to reach or slip below replacement fertility. We review the research on low fertility through the predominant frameworks and theories used to explain it. These explanations range from decomposition and proximate determinant frameworks to grand theories on the fundamental causes underlying the pervasiveness and spread of low fertility. We focus on the ability of theory to situate previous and future findings and conclude with directions for furthur research.

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East German Fertility After Unification: Crisis or Adaptation?

Cited by 99 publications

References 7 publications

Future Fertility in Low Fertility Countries

Future Fertility in Low Fertility Countries

Gender roles and values of children: Childless Couples in East and West Germany

Low Fertility at the Turn of the Twenty-First Century

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