Ebola outbreak in West Africa, 2014 – 2016: Epidemic timeline, differential diagnoses, determining factors, and lessons for future response

Kamorudeen, Ramat T.; Adedokun, Kamoru A.; Olarinmoye, Ayodeji Oluwadare

doi:10.1016/j.jiph.2020.03.014

Cited by 57 publications

(33 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…As a consequence of a changing malaria epidemiology and concurrent epidemics of newly emerging diseases, scenarios need to be envisioned that simulate changing MAF prevalences [ 5 , 16 , 17 ]. Furthermore, MAF prevalences might be subjected to seasonal variations.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predictive Performance of Rapid Diagnostic Tests for Falciparum Malaria and Its Modeled Impact on Integrated Community Case Management of Malaria in Sub-Saharan African Febrile Children

Mischlinger

Dudek

Ramharter

2021

Clinical Infectious Diseases

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Background Integrated community case management (iCCM) of malaria complements and extends the reach of public health services to improve access to timely diagnosis and treatment of malaria. Such community-based programmes rely on standardised test-and-treat algorithms implemented by community health workers using malaria rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs). However, due to a changing epidemiology of fever causes, positive RDT results might not correctly reflect malaria-disease in all malaria-endemic settings in Africa. This study modelled diagnostic predictive values for all malaria-endemic African regions as an indicator of the programmatic usefulness of RDTs in iCCM campaigns on malaria. Methods Positive predictive values (PPV) and negative predictive values (NPV) of RDTs for clinical malaria were modelled. Assay-specific performance characteristics stem from the Cochrane Library and publicly available data on the proportion of malaria-attributable fevers among African febrile children under five years of age were used as prevalence matrix. Results Average country-level PPVs vary considerably: Ethiopia had lowest PPVs (HRP2-assay: 17.35%; pLDH-assay: 39.73%) and Guinea the highest PPVs (HRP2-assay: 95.32%; pLDH-assay: 98.46%). On the contrary, NPVs were above 90% in all countries (HRP2-assay: ≥94.87%; pLDH-assay ≥93.36%). Conclusions PPVs differed considerably within Africa when used for screening of febrile children indicating unfavourable performance of RDT-based test-and-treat algorithms in low-PPV settings. This suggests that the administration of antimalarials alone may not constitute causal treatment in the presence of a positive RDT result for a substantial proportion of patients particularly in low-PPV settings. Therefore, current iCCM algorithms should be complemented by information on other setting-specific major causes of fever.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predictive Performance of Rapid Diagnostic Tests for Falciparum Malaria and Its Modeled Impact on Integrated Community Case Management of Malaria in Sub-Saharan African Febrile Children

Mischlinger

Dudek

Ramharter

2021

Clinical Infectious Diseases

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“…This can be attributed to the absence of any significant outbreaks of HCV or HIV during the time period; while these viruses are important in a biomedical sense, 10,11 those viruses have likely been endemic. 12,13 Third, two examples of outbreaks in the decade of 2010, EVD 14 and ZIKV, 15 exhibit biphasic kinetics in the publication trend (Figure 1). The phase of sharp increase in number of publications, which overlaps with the time of each outbreak, also follows sigmoidal kinetics (Equation 1and Table 1) as does COVID-19.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Temporal development of research publications on SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19

Kang

Kang²,

Cowan

et al. 2021

F1000Res

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The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has affected daily life throughout the world. The scientific community has globally responded to the pandemic with research on an unprecedented scale to help prevent disease spread and terminate the pandemic, resulting in a proliferation of scientific publications. In this article, the temporal trend of research on COVID-19 is analyzed to describe its development and inform a prediction of its future. Four other viruses are included in the analysis as negative or positive controls to illustrate that the concerns of the general public and/or the interest of the scientific community are major driving forces in the development of research. Our analysis predicts that COVID-19 and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) will be major topics of research until at least 2025. We discuss the implications of our analysis for three sectors of community: researchers, epidemiologists, and young students.

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“…Global pandemic crises have periodically caused havoc to mankind and have imposed threat to the lives of numerous humans ( Hiscott et al, 2020 ). Spanish flu, swine flu, ebola and zika are some of the most dreaded epidemic eruptions of the past ( Kamorudeen and Adedokun, 2020 ; Chowell et al, 2006 ; Calore et al, 2011 ; Nikookar et al, 2020 ). Coronaviruses were considered as relatively harmless pathogens until they caused three major outbreaks of severe respiratory disease in the last 20 years.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Random forest regression analysis on combined role of meteorological indicators in disease dissemination in an Indian city: A case study of New Delhi

Hariharan

2021

Urban Climate

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Ebola outbreak in West Africa, 2014 – 2016: Epidemic timeline, differential diagnoses, determining factors, and lessons for future response

Cited by 57 publications

References 15 publications

Predictive Performance of Rapid Diagnostic Tests for Falciparum Malaria and Its Modeled Impact on Integrated Community Case Management of Malaria in Sub-Saharan African Febrile Children

Predictive Performance of Rapid Diagnostic Tests for Falciparum Malaria and Its Modeled Impact on Integrated Community Case Management of Malaria in Sub-Saharan African Febrile Children

Temporal development of research publications on SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19

Random forest regression analysis on combined role of meteorological indicators in disease dissemination in an Indian city: A case study of New Delhi

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