ECB-Global 2.0: A Global Macroeconomic Model with Dominant-Currency Pricing, Tariffs and Trade Diversion

Georgiadis, Georgios; Hildebrand, Sebastian; Ricci, Martino; Schumann, Ben; Roye, Björn van

doi:10.2139/ssrn.3797150

Cited by 2 publications

(3 citation statements)

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“…Cent. Bank 2019, OECD 2019, Bundesbank 2020, Georgiadis et al 2021. The first group reports effects on US (Chinese) output in the range of −0.17% and −0.41% (−0.30% and −1.20%).…”

Section: Stock Market and Uncertaintymentioning

confidence: 99%

The Economic Impacts of the US–China Trade War

2022

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In 2018, the United States launched a trade war with China, marking an abrupt departure from its historical leadership in integrating global markets. By late 2019, the United States had imposed tariffs on roughly $350 billion of Chinese imports, and China had retaliated on $100 billion of US exports. Economists have used a diversity of data and methods to assess the impacts of the trade war on the United States, China, and other countries. This article reviews what we have learned to date from this work.

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“…Cent. Bank 2019, OECD 2019, Bundesbank 2020, Georgiadis et al 2021. The first group reports effects on US (Chinese) output in the range of −0.17% and −0.41% (−0.30% and −1.20%).…”

Section: Stock Market and Uncertaintymentioning

confidence: 99%

The Economic Impacts of the US–China Trade War

2022

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“…З допомогою моделі можна оцінити поточні зміни економічної політики та відстрочені глобальні побічні ефекти. Ця модель застосовувалася для оцінок посилення монетарної політики США, уповільнення економічного зростання Китаю, а також зміни цін на нафту [25]. Удосконалення моделі ECB-Global 2.0 відбувається із дотриманням напівструктурного підходу, що дає змогу поєднати переваги повністю структурних моделей і моделей, які складаються з сукупності окремих рівнянь.…”

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“…Удосконалення моделі ECB-Global 2.0 відбувається із дотриманням напівструктурного підходу, що дає змогу поєднати переваги повністю структурних моделей і моделей, які складаються з сукупності окремих рівнянь. Гнучка модифікація моделі дозволяє вирішувати проблеми оцінки торгових конфліктів, змін світової торгівлі, тарифів, експортного ціноутворення, підвищення вартості імпорту внаслідок підвищення митних тарифів [25].…”

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A Framework for the Assessment of Fiscal Consequences of Global Trade Wars

Bilousova¹

2022

Stat. Ukr.

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The article is devoted to topical issues of assessing the consequences of trade wars for the fiscal space of third countries. The main preconditions and causes of the trade conflict between the United States and China were studied. The main models for assessing the consequences of global trade wars were analyzed. Particular attention is paid to the global integrated monetary, fiscal and global trade models, which are based on the principles of general economic equilibrium and are widely used to assess the economic consequences of global challenges, including trade wars. It was found that the global integrated monetary and fiscal model, other macroeconomic models were aimed at determining the economic consequences and effects and cannot be directly used to assess fiscal risks and likely budget losses due to global trade wars. The aim of the article is to deepen the principles of assessing the fiscal consequences of trade wars in the conditions of uncertainty in foreign economic policy and directions of restructuring of the world value chains. The economic consequences of the conflict and the channels of their spread to third countries were identified taking into account the deepening globalization processes. The direct and indirect dependence of exports and imports, GDP, investments, factor productivity level and tax revenues on changes in foreign trade, tariff increases, increasing uncertainty in world trade in the short, medium and long term is highlighted. The estimates obtained by different models are summarized. The fiscal consequences of the trade conflict between the United States and China for Ukraine as a country with a small, open and predominantly commodity economy were quantified. The inclusion in fiscal risks of probable losses of foreign trade from global trade wars, arising due to various reasons, which may decrease the tax revenues or increase the expenditures on the public support of enterprises, is justified. Changes in the methodology for assessment of fiscal risks are proposed, enabling to estimate the cost impact of fiscal risks on the public budget of Ukraine. Proposals for improvements in the statistical monitoring of business activity of enterprises, to form an appropriate information base for monitoring foreign economic activities, assessing fiscal risks and making decisions to ensure the sustainability of public finance and public support for enterprises in the conditions of global trade wars, are substantiated.

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ECB-Global 2.0: A Global Macroeconomic Model with Dominant-Currency Pricing, Tariffs and Trade Diversion

Abstract: This paper should not be reported as representing the views of the European Central Bank (ECB). The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB.

Cited by 2 publications

References 14 publications

The Economic Impacts of the US–China Trade War

The Economic Impacts of the US–China Trade War

A Framework for the Assessment of Fiscal Consequences of Global Trade Wars

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