ECMWF Ensemble Forecasts of Six Tropical Cyclones That Formed during a Long-Lasting Rossby Wave Breaking Event in the Western North Pacific
Russell L. Elsberry,
Hsiao-Chung Tsai,
Wei-Chia Chin
et al.
Abstract:The ECMWF‘s ensemble (ECEPS) predictions are documented for the lifecycles of six tropical cyclones (TCs) that formed during a long-lasting Rossby wave breaking event in the western North Pacific. All six TC tracks started between 20° N and 25° N, and between 136° E and 160° E. All five typhoons recurved north of 30° N, and the three typhoons that did not make landfall had long tracks to 50° N and beyond. The ECEPS weighted mean vector motion track forecasts from pre-formation onward are quite accurate, with t… Show more
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