Eco-Geography of <em>Dioscorea Composita</em> (Hemsl.) and Prediction of Climate Change Effects on Its Current and Future Distribution in México-Central America

Abstract

Dioscorea composita is a plant native to México and Central America with a high concentration of diosgenin precursors. Currently, México is one of the two most important countries producers of this yam; however, climate change is altering the environmental conditions of its natural habits, threatening its preservation and productivity. This is why this research was focused to characterize the eco-geography of D. composita and predict its potential geographic distribution under climate change scenarios in México-Central America. A collection of 408 geo-referenced accessions was used to determine its climatic adaptation, ecological descriptors, and the current and future potential geographic distribution, which was modeled with MaxEnt model through the Kuenm R-package. For future climate scenarios, an ensemble of the GCMs HadGEM-ES and CCSM4 was used. Results showed that D. composita adapts to warm humid and very humid agro-climates and that the most contributing variables for its presence are annual and seasonal moisture availability indices, seasonal photoperiod, annual thermal range, Bio14 and Bio11. The year 2050 RCP 4.5 climate scenario would contract the potential distribution of D. composita, whilst the 2050 RCP 8.5 scenario would expand it, indicating that this species could be a good crop option under this scenario of emissions.