Ecologic and Geographic Distribution of Filovirus Disease

Abstract

We used ecologic niche modeling of outbreaks and sporadic cases of filovirus-associated hemorrhagic fever (HF) to provide a large-scale perspective on the geographic and ecologic distributions of Ebola and Marburg viruses. We predicted that filovirus would occur across the Afrotropics: Ebola HF in the humid rain forests of central and western Africa, and Marburg HF in the drier and more open areas of central and eastern Africa. Most of the predicted geographic extent of Ebola HF has been observed; Marburg HF has the potential to occur farther south and east. Ecologic conditions appropriate for Ebola HF are also present in Southeast Asia and the Philippines, where Ebola Reston is hypothesized to be distributed. This first large-scale ecologic analysis provides a framework for a more informed search for taxa that could constitute the natural reservoir for this virus family.

Translating Predictions of Zoonotic Viruses for Policymakers

“…No occurrence data from Cameroon were used to make these predictions and all three overlapped in the tropical rainforest of the East region of Cameroon, with some predictions extending into the Central and South regions (Peterson et al 2004;Pigott et al 2014;Judson et al 2016). The tropical rainforest identified in the models is similar to where most EBOV index cases have occurred (Judson et al 2016).…”

“…A qualitative dis- (Randolph and Rogers 2007), magenta . Ebola virus: yellow (Pigott et al 2014), magenta (Judson et al 2016), blue (Peterson et al 2004). Lassa virus: yellow (Fichet-Calvet and Rogers 2009) (model 2), magenta (Fichet-Calvet and Rogers 2009) (model 3), blue .…”

“…Lassa virus: yellow (Fichet-Calvet and Rogers 2009) (model 2), magenta (Fichet-Calvet and Rogers 2009) (model 3), blue . Marburg virus: yellow ) (model 2), magenta ) (model 1), blue (Peterson et al 2004). Rift valley fever virus: yellow (Clements et al 2006), magenta (Anyamba 2016), blue (Rogers 2006) (Color figure online).…”

“…We obtained three publications with predictions for EBOV (Peterson et al 2004;Pigott et al 2014;Judson et al 2016). No occurrence data from Cameroon were used to make these predictions and all three overlapped in the tropical rainforest of the East region of Cameroon, with some predictions extending into the Central and South regions (Peterson et al 2004;Pigott et al 2014;Judson et al 2016).…”

“…We found three predictive maps for MARV from two publications (Peterson et al 2004;Pigott et al 2015). One publication had two predictions, one based on a model using human cases only and the other including bat serology .…”