Ecological Adaptation and Sustainable Cultivation of Citrus reticulata by Applying Mixed Design Principles under Changing Climate in China

Abstract

Climate change is heavily altering plant distributions, posing significant challenges to conventional agricultural practices and ecological balance. Meanwhile, mixed species planting emerges as a potent strategy to enhance agricultural resilience, counteract climate change, preserve ecological balance, and provide a solution to economic instability. The MaxEnt model was used to predict the suitable area of Citrus reticulata under five climate scenarios and to explore affecting environmental factors. Litchi chinensis, Punica granatum, and Lycium chinense were selected as mixed species to analyze the spatial distribution and centroid migration trend of potentially suitable areas. The research results show the following: (1) The primary environmental factors impacting C. reticulata distribution are annual precipitation (1000–4000 mm), precipitation of driest quarter over 100 mm, and mean temperature of coldest quarter (12–28 °C). Crucially, the mixed species exhibited similar environmental sensitivities, indicating mutual mixing suitability. (2) Currently, the C. reticulata suitable area is of 240.21 × 104 km2, primarily in South, East, Central, and Southwest China, with potential for expansion to 265.41 × 104 km2 under the 2090s SSP1-2.6 scenario. (3) The geometric center of the moderately-to-highly suitable areas for C. reticulata is located in Hunan Province. Future scenarios show the C. reticulata’s centroid migrating northwest, with distances of less than 110 km. Mixed planting trends toward higher latitudes, fluctuating from 6 km to 210 km. (4) Mixed planting area planning: C. reticulata and L. chinensis are suitable for mixed planting in South China. C. reticulata and P. granatum, C. reticulata and L. chinense are suitable for mixed planting in most areas of Central, East, Southwest, and South China. This research presents a new perspective on using mixed design principles for ecological adaptation and the sustainable mixed planting of C. reticulata, in response to China’s changing climate. This approach is expected to help the economic fruit tree industry enhance ecological resilience and economic stability in the face of future climate change challenges.