Ecological Consequences from Forest Burning in the Northern Hemisphere in 2020: Results of Modeling and Quantitative Calculations

Topicality. There is an urgent need to select the main energy, geometric and thermophysical parameters of forest fires, as well as to assess the main parameters of these fires, including unexplored fire tornadoes and wave processes caused by fires. Purpose. To develop mathematical models of physical processes caused by large-scale forest fires, evaluate the main parameters of these fires, including unexplored fire tornadoes and wave processes caused by fires. Methods. Analytical review of the research problem, theoretical and computational, mathematical modeling, systematic analysis of the set of physical effects. Results. The results of the analysis of the parameters of forest fires and related physical processes caused by large-scale fires are presented. The main energy, geometric and thermophysical parameters of large-scale forest fires are proposed. These include: energy, power, duration, area of fires, as well as the length, intensity and speed of the combustion front, heat flux density, power flux density, torch height, heat and smoke rise height, convection speed, etc. Simple analytical physical and mathematical models of the main parameters of large-scale forest fires have been created. A model of a fiery tornado is proposed. The obtained ratios allow us to estimate the main parameters of fire tornadoes that accompany large-scale forest fires. These include radius, angular velocity, tangential velocity, maximum height and rate of rise of the heated formation. It is shown that, depending on the size of the vortex, the parameters of the fiery tornado vary widely. These relationships make it possible to analyze and evaluate the main parameters of wave processes generated by forest fires. Such parameters are energy, relative share of energy, range of periods of acoustic radiation, etc. The main parameters of forest fires and related physical processes are calculated. It is shown that depending on the area of the fire, these parameters vary widely. Conclusions. Mathematical models of physical processes caused by large-scale forest fires have been developed, by means of which the parameters of the main effects have been calculated.

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Simulation of large-scale forest fire parameters

Chernogor

Nekos

Тітенко

et al. 2022

Visnyk of v. N. Karazin Kharkiv National University Series "Ecology"

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Mathematical models for estimate of the ecological consequences of the impact of the pyrogenic factor on forest ecosystems

Chernogor

Nekos

Тітенко

et al. 2022

Visnyk of v. N. Karazin Kharkiv National University Series "Ecology"

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There is a need for the development of simple analytical mathematical models of the burning of large forest areas, necessary for the assessment of the ecological consequences of the impact of the pyrogenic factor. Purpose. Develop mathematical models describing the spread of large-scale forest fires aimed at estimate the ecological consequences of the impact of the pyrogenic factor. Methods. Analytical review of research on the problem, theoretical and computational, mathematical modeling. Results. The results of the main parameters analysis of large forest areas combustion are presented. These include the area covered by the fire, the duration of the fire, the burnout time, the specific mass of combustible materials, the energy and power of combustion, the specific calorific value, the intensity of combustion, the movement speed of the combustion front, the influx of combustible materials, etc. Simple analytical mathematical models of large forest areas combustion have been established. These include the following models: a model with a constant growth rate of the fire area, a two-dimensional model, a model with sectorial movement of the combustion front, a model with a linear growth of the length of the combustion front, a model with a quadratic growth of the change rate of the fire area, and a generalized model. A new fire intensity classification has been proposed, containing 1–7 points from extremely low to extreme intensity. The maximum area covered by the fire (10–100 thousand km2), combustion energy (1–10 EJ) and combustion power (0.1–1 PW) have been estimated. Conclusions. Simple analytical mathematical models of the combustion process of large forest surface areas, which are necessary for quantitative assessment of the ecological consequences of fires, have been developed.

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Fire classification in natural ecosystems by physical and environmental characteristics

Chernogor,

Nekos,

Titenko

et al. 2023

Visnyk of v. N. Karazin Kharkiv National University Series "Ecology"

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To qualitatively and quantitatively characterize and classify the intensity of forest fires and their environmental consequences, it is necessary to develop a special scale similar to the scale of wind strength, sea storms, earthquakes, geomagnetic storms, etc. Purpose. To describe the scales developed for the classification of forest fires according to various parameters characterizing physicochemical processes, environmental consequences and the level of danger from pyrogenic factors. Methods. System analysis, multifactorial analysis, mathematical modeling. Results. A seven-magnitude scale for classifying forest fires by intensity, energy characteristics, mass of emissions of the main combustion products and related chemical elements, as well as by environmental consequences and hazard level is proposed. It is substantiated that with moderate and weak winds, the intensity and energy of forest fires in Ukraine usually do not exceed 4-5 magnitudes, i.e., a moderate or high level. Fires of this level occurred, for example, in the spring, summer, and fall of 2020 in a number of regions of Ukraine. Conclusions. The developed special scales for classifying forest fires according to various parameters are an effective tool for qualitative and quantitative characterization of the intensity of forest fires and their environmental consequences. The obtained results can also be used to assess environmental impacts, material damage and social losses.

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Ecological Consequences from Forest Burning in the Northern Hemisphere in 2020: Results of Modeling and Quantitative Calculations

Cited by 4 publications

References 7 publications

Simulation of large-scale forest fire parameters

Simulation of large-scale forest fire parameters

Mathematical models for estimate of the ecological consequences of the impact of the pyrogenic factor on forest ecosystems

Fire classification in natural ecosystems by physical and environmental characteristics

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