Ecological correlates and predictors of Lassa fever incidence in Ondo State, Nigeria 2017–2021: an emerging urban trend

Cadmus, Simeon; Taiwo, Olalekan John; Akinseye, Victor; Cadmus, Eniola; Famokun, Gboyega; Fagbemi, Stephen; Ansumana, Rashid; Omoluabi, Anddy; Ayinmode, Adekunle; Oluwayelu, Daniel; Odemuyiwa, Solomon; Tomori, Oyewale

doi:10.1038/s41598-023-47820-3

Cited by 6 publications

References 48 publications

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Lassa fever in Nigeria: epidemiology and risk perception

Al-Mustapha,

Adesiyan,

Orum

et al. 2024

Sci Rep

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Annual outbreaks of Lassa fever have resulted in a public health threat in Nigeria and other endemic countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. While the Lassa Virus (LASV) is endemic in rodent populations, zoonotic spillover to humans causes annual outbreaks. This study reviewed the burden of Lassa fever (LF) in Nigeria between 2020 and 2023 and conducted a cross-sectional survey of Nigerians to evaluate their risk perceptions of LF. During the period under review, 28,780 suspected and 4,036 confirmed cases of LF were reported from 34 of the 37 states of Nigeria. These cases resulted in 762 deaths (a CFR of 18.9%). The overall case positivity rate was 14% (4,036/28,780), with more positive cases in 2020 (17.5%, n = 1,189/6,791). A total of 2,150 study participants were enrolled in the prospective cross-sectional study, with most of them (87.5%, n = 1,881/2,150) having previously heard of Lassa fever (LF). The numerical scoring system revealed that 35.43% ( n = 762/1,881) of those aware of LF have poor knowledge of its preventive measures, route of transmission, and control measures. Approximately 6.84% ( n = 147/2,150) of them were at a high risk of contracting LF, with 27.6% ( n = 584/2,150) of study participants feeling concerned about contracting LF because of the presence of rodents in their immediate vicinity, occupational exposure to healthcare workers, and the probability of contamination of food by infected rodents without necessary food safety measures. Multivariable logistic regression analysis revealed that tertiary education was associated with an increased likelihood of better LF knowledge (OR: 17.32; 95% CI: 10.62, 28.26; p < 0.01) and a lower risk of contracting LF when compared to respondents with no formal education. In addition, study participants who reside in low-burden states have lower LF perception than those residents in high-LF-burden states (OR: 0.59; 95% CI: 0.38–0.91; p = 0.049). On the other hand, study participants with poor risk perception (knowledge) of LF had a higher likelihood (RR: 0.33; 95% CI: 0.20, 0.53; p < 0.01) of contracting LF when compared to those with good knowledge of LF. Similarly, those residents in low LF burden states were less likely (OR: 0.09; 95% CI: 0.05,0.17; p < 0.01) to contract LF when compared to those residents in high burden states. There is a need to improve LF diagnostics capacity, infection prevention and control measures, and implementation of the One Health approach to controlling LASV from animal reservoirs. In addition, public enlightenment campaigns to address fundamental knowledge gaps are crucial to mitigating the ongoing and future impact of LF in Nigeria. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1038/s41598-024-78726-3.

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Lassa fever in Nigeria: epidemiology and risk perception

Al-Mustapha,

Adesiyan,

Orum

et al. 2024

Sci Rep

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Modelling Seasonal Variation and Lassa Fever Outbreak in Nigeria: A Predictive Approach

Musa,

Osuolale,

Lawal

et al. 2024

IJDSA

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Background: Lassa fever, a severe viral hemorrhagic fever caused by the Lassa virus, is a significant public health concern in West Africa, particularly in Nigeria. First identified in the 1950s, Lassa fever has been a persistent threat, causing outbreaks annually. This study investigates the temporal patterns and trends of Lassa fever outbreaks in Nigeria between 2017 and 2023, leveraging a comprehensive dataset from the Nigerian Centre for Disease Control (NCDC). Objective: The goal of this study is to analyze the seasonal variations and predict future occurrences of Lassa fever outbreaks in Nigeria. By employing the Box-Jenkins time series analysis and geo-spatial analysis, we aim to: Identify temporal patterns by Examining monthly and annual trends in Lassa fever case numbers, Forecast future outbreaks by utilizing an ARIMA model to predict future incidence rates and inform public health strategies by providing evidence-based recommendations to improve Lassa fever prevention and control efforts. Methods: This study utilized a secondary dataset comprising over 60 data points collected from the NCDC portal between 2017 and 2023. The Box-Jenkins time series analysis, specifically the ARIMA model, was employed to analyze the temporal patterns and forecast future trends. The model's adequacy was assessed using the Ljung-Box test. Additionally, geo-spatial analysis was conducted to visualize the spatial distribution of Lassa fever cases. Results: The analysis revealed distinct seasonal patterns in Lassa fever incidence, influenced by Nigeria's climatic and environmental conditions. Monthly fluctuations in confirmed cases were observed, with peak periods aligning with specific seasons. The ARIMA (0, 1, 1)(0, 1, 1)12 model demonstrated a strong fit to the data, providing reliable forecasts for future outbreaks. Conclusion: This study underscores the importance of strengthening surveillance systems for early detection and rapid response to Lassa fever outbreaks, particularly during peak seasons. Implementing effective rodent control measures, promoting good hygiene practices, and improving environmental sanitation are crucial for reducing the risk of Lassa fever transmission. Furthermore, enhancing collaboration between government agencies, healthcare providers, and research institutions is essential for optimizing Lassa fever prevention and control efforts.

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Descriptive epidemiology of Lassa fever, its trend, seasonality, and mortality predictors in Ebonyi State, South- East, Nigeria, 2018—2022

Ezenwa-Ahanene,

Salawu,

Adebowale

2024

BMC Public Health

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Background Nigeria is an epicenter for Lassa fever. Ebonyi state is located in the South-Eastern region of Nigeria where a high burden of Lassa fever has been reported. Therefore, this study was designed to assess the epidemiology of Lassa fever, its seasonality, trend, and mortality predictors in Ebonyi state, South-East, Nigeria. Method We analyzed data extracted from Ebonyi State Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response (IDSR) system over five years (2018–2022). A total of 1578 reported Lassa fever cases were captured in the IDSR out of which 300 were laboratory-confirmed. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, additive time series model, quadratic equation, and logistic regression model (α 0.05 ). Spatial distribution of reported Lassa fever cases was conducted using Arc G.I.S. Results The mean age of the individuals with the reported cases of Lassa fever was 29.4 ± 17.8 years. Lassa fever showed a seasonal trend across the years. The quadratic model provided the best fit for predicting Lassa fever cumulative cases (R 2 = 98.4%, P-value < 0.05). Projected cases of Lassa fever for the year 2023 were 123 in the 1st quarter, 23 in the 2nd quarter, 42 in the 3rd quarter, and 17 in the 4th quarter. The seasonality index was + 70.76, -28.42, -9.09, and -33.2 in the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th quarters respectively. The reported cases of Lassa fever followed a declining trend (slope = -0.1363). Farmers were 70% less likely to die from Lassa fever compared to those not working (aOR:0.3, CI: 0.17–0.83). The hot spots for Lassa fever were Abakaliki and Ezza Local Government Areas. Conclusion Although the reported Lassa fever cases followed a declining trend in Ebonyi state, there was a seasonality in the disease pattern. Being a farmer was protective against the risk of dying from Lassa fever. While efforts to eliminate and mitigate the spread of the disease in Ebonyi state should be strengthened, more attention should target the peak period of the disease.

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Ecological correlates and predictors of Lassa fever incidence in Ondo State, Nigeria 2017–2021: an emerging urban trend

Cited by 6 publications

References 48 publications

Lassa fever in Nigeria: epidemiology and risk perception

Lassa fever in Nigeria: epidemiology and risk perception

Modelling Seasonal Variation and Lassa Fever Outbreak in Nigeria: A Predictive Approach

Descriptive epidemiology of Lassa fever, its trend, seasonality, and mortality predictors in Ebonyi State, South- East, Nigeria, 2018—2022

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