Ecological-economic sustainability of the Baltic cod fisheries under ocean warming and acidification

Voss, Rudi; Quaas, Martin F.; Stiasny, Martina; Hänsel, Martin; Pinto, Guilherme A. Stecher Justiniano; Lehmann, Andreas; Reusch, Thorsten B.H.; Schmidt, Jörn O.

doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.02.105

Cited by 33 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…For example, Årthun et al [22] use a variety of temperature, salinity and climatic indices to predict Northeast Arctic cod recruitment. Only very few studies [27][28][29][30] combine ocean warming and acidification effects on recruitment within an integrated bio-economic model.…”

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confidence: 99%

“…Unlike Lam et al and Fernandes et al, our model explicitly includes dynamic feedbacks between the ecological and the economic part of the model. Closest to our modelling framework are Cooley et al [29] and Voss et al [30]. Cooley et al [29] focus on the United States Atlantic sea scallop fishery by modelling ocean acidification effects on juvenile sea scallop as well as ocean warming and acidification effects on adults.…”

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confidence: 99%

“…OA effects on scallop recruitment are included into a Berverton-Holt stock recruitment relationship while deep-water temperature and ocean acidification effects on scallop growth are used to adjust the body growth coefficient of adult scallops, which is assumed directly proportional to the growth in calcification. Voss et al [30] employ a methodology very similar to our study. They alter the parameters of growth and natural mortality of a Ricker type stock-recruitment function in a dynamic age-structured fishery model and find that the management of the Western Baltic Cod fishery will not be able to adapt to the combined effect of ocean warming and acidification.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Ocean warming and acidification may drag down the commercial Arctic cod fishery by 2100

et al. 2020

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The Arctic Ocean is an early warning system for indicators and effects of climate change. We use a novel combination of experimental and time-series data on effects of ocean warming and acidification on the commercially important Northeast Arctic cod (Gadus morhua) to incorporate these physiological processes into the recruitment model of the fish population. By running an ecological-economic optimization model, we investigate how the interaction of ocean warming, acidification and fishing pressure affects the sustainability of the fishery in terms of ecological, economic, social and consumer-related indicators, ranging from present day conditions up to future climate change scenarios. We find that near-term climate change will benefit the fishery, but under likely future warming and acidification this large fishery is at risk of collapse by the end of the century, even with the best adaptation effort in terms of reduced fishing pressure.

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confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

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Ocean warming and acidification may drag down the commercial Arctic cod fishery by 2100

et al. 2020

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“…The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate acknowledged OA as a risk to shellfish fisheries but overlooked any risk to fin fisheries (IPCC, 2019). Whilst there is debate about the impact of OA on finfish (Kroeker et al, 2013;Haug et al, 2017), there is reasonable evidence from laboratory studies to suggest enough cause for concern (Frommel et al, 2012;Stiasny et al, 2016Stiasny et al, , 2018Stiasny et al, , 2019Dahlke et al, 2017; Supplementary Table 1) and that the changing carbonate chemistry needs to be considered when assessing future fish stocks (Voss et al, 2019). Atlantic cod is the highest landed and most economically valued wild captured species in the Arctic (Pauly et al, 2020) and recent work predicts that although near-future conditions will at first be advantageous to the Atlantic cod (Gadus morchua) fishery in the Northeast Arctic due to reaching the optimal temperature for the spawning stock, once that optimal temperature is reached, further temperature rise combined with OA will lead to a steep decline in stock levels, and by year 2100 the fishery will be at risk of collapse (Hänsel et al, 2020).…”

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confidence: 99%

Satellite Observations Are Needed to Understand Ocean Acidification and Multi-Stressor Impacts on Fish Stocks in a Changing Arctic Ocean

et al. 2021

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It is widely projected that under future climate scenarios the economic importance of Arctic Ocean fish stocks will increase. The Arctic Ocean is especially vulnerable to ocean acidification and already experiences low pH levels not projected to occur on a global scale until 2100. This paper outlines how ocean acidification must be considered with other potential stressors to accurately predict movement of fish stocks toward, and within, the Arctic and to inform future fish stock management strategies. First, we review the literature on ocean acidification impacts on fish, next we identify the main obstacles that currently preclude ocean acidification from Arctic fish stock projections. Finally, we provide a roadmap to describe how satellite observations can be used to address these gaps: improve knowledge, inform experimental studies, provide regional assessments of vulnerabilities, and implement appropriate management strategies. This roadmap sets out three inter-linked research priorities: (1) Establish organisms and ecosystem physiochemical baselines by increasing the coverage of Arctic physicochemical observations in both space and time; (2) Understand the variability of all stressors in space and time; (3) Map life histories and fish stocks against satellite-derived observations of stressors.

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“…Since 2015, the annual recruitment has been at a record low, with the exception of a relatively strong year class in 2016 (ICES 2020). Negative effects of ocean warming on recruitment are evident (Stiasny et al 2016;Voss et al 2019), but the mechanisms currently driving the low recruitment are not fully understood. Analysis of otolith micro-increments has been used to study recruitment variability in other cod stocks (Campana 1996) and may therefore be an appropriate method to explore the drivers of variable year class strength in WBC.…”

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confidence: 99%

Is analysis of otolith microstructure a valid method for investigating early life history of Western Baltic cod?

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et al. 2021

Mar Biol

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Daily formation of fish otolith micro-increments is frequently assumed, however applying inferences about timing of life history events and formation of otolith macro-structures requires further validation of the periodicity of micro-increment formation. We analysed micro-increments from Western Baltic cod (WBC, Gadus morhua) otoliths marked with tetracycline-hydrochloride as part of an age validation study to test the assumption of daily formation of micro-increments. We found that the number of counted micro-increments consistently underestimated the age of cod aged 1 and older. Time at liberty was also underestimated, especially for fish at liberty during winter. In contrast, micro-increment counts of otoliths from wild-caught young-of-the-year (YOY) cod could be used to realistically estimate timing of hatch and translucent zone formation. Under ambient conditions, settlement did not correspond to any visible pattern within the otoliths, but could be inferred from the prey switch observed from stomach content analyses. We therefore conclude that micro-increments can be assumed to form on a daily basis until the first winter, and can therefore be used to investigate early life history of YOY WBC. However, the periodicity of micro-increment formation appears to vary seasonally in older individuals, with the number of micro-increments formed during the winter period being particularly low.

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Ecological-economic sustainability of the Baltic cod fisheries under ocean warming and acidification

Cited by 33 publications

References 41 publications

Ocean warming and acidification may drag down the commercial Arctic cod fishery by 2100

Ocean warming and acidification may drag down the commercial Arctic cod fishery by 2100

Satellite Observations Are Needed to Understand Ocean Acidification and Multi-Stressor Impacts on Fish Stocks in a Changing Arctic Ocean

Is analysis of otolith microstructure a valid method for investigating early life history of Western Baltic cod?

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