Ecological models supporting environmental decision making: a strategy for the future

Schmolke, Amélie; Thorbek, Pernille; Jiang, Jiang; Grimm, Volker

doi:10.1016/j.tree.2010.05.001

Cited by 387 publications

(373 citation statements)

References 55 publications

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“…Often, site-specific criteria decide which approach is most suitable. In order to select the right model, a holistic approach is needed, considering the interplay between many elements such as the purpose of the model, the type of data present, the available knowledge [119] and the model outputs that are required [16]. Hence, the selection of an appropriate model should not only depend on statistical considerations [105,120,121].…”

Section: Strengths-weaknesses-opportunities-threats Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Ecological models can support decision making in environmental and conservation management [16] and have already been applied to assess the impact of dams on fish [17][18][19][20][21][22], macroinvertebrates [23][24][25], amphibians [26] and vegetation [27][28][29]. Models are being increasingly used in environmental assessment, planning and management [30].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Modelling Tools to Analyze and Assess the Ecological Impact of Hydropower Dams

Nguyen

Everaert

Boets

et al. 2018

Water

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Abstract:We critically analyzed a set of ecological models that are used to assess the impact of hydropower dams on water quality and habitat suitability for biological communities. After a literature search, we developed an integrated conceptual model that illustrates the linkages between the main input variables, model approaches, the output variables and biotic-abiotic interactions in the ecosystems related to hydropower dams. We found that variations in water flow and water depth coupled with increased nutrient availability are major variables that contribute to structural and functional ecosystem changes. We also found that ecological models are an important tool to assess the impact of hydropower dams. For instance, model simulation of different scenarios (e.g., with and without the dam, different operation methods) can analyze and predict the related ecosystem shifts. However, one of the remaining shortcomings of these models is the limited capacity to separate dam-related impacts from other anthropogenic influences (e.g., agriculture, urbanization). Moreover, collecting sufficient high-quality data to increase the statistical power remains a challenge. The severely altered conditions (e.g., generation of very deep lakes) also lead to difficulties for standardized data collection. We see future opportunities in the integration of models to improve the understanding of the different processes affected by hydropower dam development and operation, as well as the use of remote sensing methods for data collection.

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Section: Strengths-weaknesses-opportunities-threats Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling Tools to Analyze and Assess the Ecological Impact of Hydropower Dams

Nguyen

Everaert

Boets

et al. 2018

Water

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show abstract

“…Ecological researchers and managers of natural systems commonly use simulation models to understand and predict the effects of drivers on ecological systems [29]. Most ecological systems are Complex Adaptive Systems with many interacting, biotic components, and feedbacks [30].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Detecting Tipping points in Ecological Models with Sensitivity Analysis

Broeke

Voorn

Kooi³

et al. 2016

Math. Model. Nat. Phenom.

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Abstract. Simulation models are commonly used to understand and predict the development of ecological systems, for instance to study the occurrence of tipping points and their possible ecological effects. Sensitivity analysis is a key tool in the study of model responses to changes in conditions. The applicability of available methodologies for sensitivity analysis can be problematic if tipping points are involved. In this paper we demonstrate that not considering these tipping points may result in misleading statistics on model behaviour. In turn, this limits the applicability of simulation models in ecological research. Tipping points are best revealed when asymptotic model behaviour is considered, i.e. by applying bifurcation analysis. Bifurcation analysis, however, is limited to deterministic dynamic models, whereas many ecological simulation models are nondeterministic and can only be analysed using sensitivity analysis methodologies. In this paper we explore the possibilities for applying methodologies of sensitivity analysis to analyse models with tipping points. The Bazykin-Berezovskaya model, a deterministic ecological model of which the structure regarding tipping points is known a priori, is used as case study. We conclude that important clues about the occurrence of tippings points can be revealed from different sensitivity analysis methodologies, if proper statistical and graphical measures are used. The results raise awareness about how tipping points affect temporal model responses in ecological simulation models, and may also be more generally applicable for nondeterministic models that cannot be analysed using bifurcation analysis.

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“…Indeed, as models merely present a simplified representation of reality, they can never replace reality, nor can they exactly predict future events. Therefore, if simulation models were to be used as policy tools, policy makers and other stakeholders should be involved throughout the modeling process [80].…”

Section: Situation Of Inequalitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Grimm et al proposed the Overview, Design concepts and Details (ODD) protocol as a standard protocol for reporting ABMs [18]. This idea is extended as a framework for transparent and comprehensive ecological modeling documentation (TRACE), in which all aspects of the modeling cycle are represented, including model development, model testing and analysis, and model application [80]. Although developed for simulation models in ecology, these good modeling practices also apply to simulation models for health inequalities.…”

Section: Situation Of Inequalitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulation models for socioeconomic inequalities in health: A systematic review

Speybroeck

Malderen

Harper

et al. 2013

European Journal of Public Health

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Background:The emergence and evolution of socioeconomic inequalities in health involves multiple factors interacting with each other at different levels. Simulation models are suitable for studying such complex and dynamic systems and have the ability to test the impact of policy interventions in silico. Objective: To explore how simulation models were used in the field of socioeconomic inequalities in health. Methods: An electronic search of studies assessing socioeconomic inequalities in health using a simulation model was conducted. Characteristics of the simulation models were extracted and distinct simulation approaches were identified. As an illustration, a simple agent-based model of the emergence of socioeconomic differences in alcohol abuse was developed. Results: We found 61 studies published between 1989 and 2013. Ten different simulation approaches were identified. The agent-based model illustration showed that multilevel, reciprocal and OPEN ACCESS Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2013, 10 5751indirect effects of social determinants on health can be modeled flexibly. Discussion and Conclusions: Based on the review, we discuss the utility of using simulation models for studying health inequalities, and refer to good modeling practices for developing such models. The review and the simulation model example suggest that the use of simulation models may enhance the understanding and debate about existing and new socioeconomic inequalities of health frameworks.

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Ecological models supporting environmental decision making: a strategy for the future

Cited by 387 publications

References 55 publications

Modelling Tools to Analyze and Assess the Ecological Impact of Hydropower Dams

Modelling Tools to Analyze and Assess the Ecological Impact of Hydropower Dams

Detecting Tipping points in Ecological Models with Sensitivity Analysis

Simulation models for socioeconomic inequalities in health: A systematic review

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