Ecological Niche Modeling of Five Azorella Species in the High Andean Páramo Ecosystem of South America: Assessing Climate Change Impacts Until 2040

Abstract

The current study aims to analyze the fundamental ecological niches of five páramo species in the high Andean zones of South America. Hereby, the research focuses on the typical flora species of this ecosystem, such as Azorella aretioides, Azorella crenata, Azorella biloba, Azorella corymbosa, and Azorella pedunculata, testing whether their niches are more similar than expected. The study area in the Ecuadorian Andes encompasses altitudinal gradients between 2000 and 5000 m above sea level, where the species were previously registered. For the methodology, we used data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) and identified the determining bioclimatic variables for the model as Bio1, Bio2, Bio3, Bio4, Bio12, Bio13, Bio14, Bio18, and Bio19. Moreover, we considered two alternative socioeconomic scenarios of climate change (SSP126 and SSP 245) projected for the period 2021–2040. In the same way, ecological niche models were evaluated and applied in order to identify areas of reduction in geographic space and the ecological space of the five species. Subsequently, the analysis revealed significant sensitivity of these high mountain species to variations in temperature and precipitation, with potential risks to associated species and water resources. In conclusion, changes in the fundamental niche were observed, with all species indicating reductions in distribution for 2040. This occurs particularly under the SSP245 scenario and especially in the equatorial zone, which currently exhibits extraordinary richness concerning the Azorella genus. Therefore, the study highlights evidently the vulnerability of páramo species to climate change, emphasizing the need for conservation efforts.