Ecological Niche Modelling of King Cobra, Ophiophagus hannah (Cantor, 1836) in Nepal

Abstract

The fragile ecosystem of greater Himalaya is home to diverse flora and fauna which are vulnerable to climate change impact. This study aimed to determine the suitable habitat of King Cobra Ophiophagus hannah (Cantor, 1836) in the current scenario and near-future scenario of the year 2040-2060 (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5). Geographic coordinates of its occurrence were obtained from published literature and environmental layers were obtained from worldclim.org and processed using ArcGIS and software R. The model was developed using MaxENT algorithms. The model was validated using the area under the curve (AUC) and True skill statistics (TSS), which showed that the model is very good (AUC =0.86) and (TSS=0.6). The results showed that altitude is a prime factor affecting the distribution of King Cobra in Nepal with a percent contribution of 31% followed by actual evapotranspiration 14.4% and least by Mean diurnal range (Bio2nep) 7%. The model predicted an area of 41,214 Km2 as suitable habitat for King Cobra in Nepal. The Chitwan National Park possesses a maximum suitable area (726.89 km2) followed by Chitwan-Buffer Zone (601.68 sq. Km2) and least by Sagarmatha National Park (1.73 km2) and Shey-Phoksundo-buffer zone (1.73 Km2). Our data indicate urban areas being the most suitable sites followed by open forest covers. The projection indicates contraction of 8% and 4% in a suitable area for RCP 4.5 and RCP 2.6 respectively, whereas RCP 8.5 showed expansion of 4%. Having probably suitable habitat in urban areas research proposes frequent awareness camping about conservation and protection of vulnerable King Cobra in Nepal.

Range‐wide prediction of habitat suitability for king cobras under current and future scenarios

“…As O. hannah is an ectothermic species, the increase in suitable habitats during the period 2081-2100 may be due to a rapid increase in temperatures, which could facilitate great suitability (Jankowsky, 1973). However, global warming remains a significant threat to biodiversity, impacting the survival of most flora and fauna (Sapkota et al, 2021). Empirical studies also demonstrate that reptiles typically lack the capacity to shift their distribution rapidly in response to climate change (Araújo and Pearson, 2005).…”

“…King cobras are known to nest, mate, and produce offspring between altitudes of 1000 and 1500 m (Sapkota et al, 2021). However, O. hannah is facing threats from habitat loss, human persecution, illegal trade, and climate change (Sapkota et al, 2021). It is listed as vulnerable by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) and is protected under national laws in most of its range countries (Gowri Shankar et al, 2013).…”

“…O. hannah is widely distributed across tropical and subtropical regions of Asia (Gowri Shankar et al, 2013), inhabiting various habitats such as forests, grasslands, agricultural fields, and mangrove swamps (Gowri Shankar et al, 2013). King cobras are known to nest, mate, and produce offspring between altitudes of 1000 and 1500 m (Sapkota et al, 2021). However, O. hannah is facing threats from habitat loss, human persecution, illegal trade, and climate change (Sapkota et al, 2021).…”

The past, present, and future of predator–prey interactions in a warming world: Using species distribution modeling to forecast ectotherm–endotherm niche overlap

“…Despite this, individual models of similar taxa may provide insight into the potential temporal biogeography of our study system. Studies that created ecological niche models (ENMs) of snake species suggest both increases and decreases in suitable habitat under climate change conditions and there does not seem to be a consensus among ectothermic reptiles (González-Fernández et al, 2018;Kalboussi & Achour, 2018;Kirk et al, 2021;Kurnaz, 2023;Lourenço-de-Moraes et al, 2019;Piquet et al, 2021;Saptoka et al, 2021).…”

“…Despite this, individual models of similar taxa may provide insight into the potential temporal biogeography of our study system. Studies that created ecological niche models (ENMs) of snake species suggest both increases and decreases in suitable habitat under climate change conditions and there does not seem to be a consensus among ectothermic reptiles (González‐Fernández et al., 2018; Kalboussi & Achour, 2018; Kirk et al., 2021; Kurnaz, 2023; Lourenço‐de‐Moraes et al., 2019; Piquet et al., 2021; Saptoka et al., 2021). Similarly, models of small mammal distributions suggest different responses to climate change depending on the species and modeling method (Baltensperger & Huettmann, 2015; Mathewson et al., 2017; Morueta‐Holme et al., 2010; Riddell et al., 2021).…”