Ecological niche modelling of three Mediterranean pine species in the south of Spain: a tool for afforestation/reforestation programs in the twenty-first century

Tirado, Javier López; Hidalgo, Pablo J.

doi:10.1007/s11056-015-9523-3

Cited by 25 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 55 publications

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“…It would occupy higher altitude sites while low‐altitude populations diminished. This had been also predicted by Vennetier et al () and observed by Tirado and Hidalgo () for pine species located in the southern shore of the Mediterranean.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 87%

“…Numerous studies conducted on the potential spatial distribution of animal species (Peck et al, ; De Souza & Delabie, ; Thomas, Lutz, & Rideau, ) and plant species (Aguirre‐Gutiérrez, Serna‐Chavez, Villalobos‐Arámbula, Pérez de la Rosa, & Raes, ; Barredo et al, ; Gbesso, Tente, Gouwakinnou, & Sinsin, ; Gnagbo, Kpangui, & Adou, ; Lopez‐Tirado & Hidalgo, ; Mbatudde, Mwanjololo, Kakudidi, & Dalitz, ; Rupprecht, Oldeland, & Finchk, ) are based on MaxEnt modelling with no shortage of successful cases of its application. However, no study of this kind has been conducted in Algeria.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Using the MaxEnt model for assessing the impact of climate change on the Aurasian Aleppo pine distribution in Algeria

Garah

Bentouati

2019

Afr J Ecol

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In the context of recent climate changes and their impact on the vegetation cover in the southern shore of the Mediterranean, this paper deals with the potential distribution in the present and the future of the Aleppo pine in the north‐east of Algeria. Accordingly, this study focuses on modelling of the spatiotemporal distribution of the Aurasian Aleppo pine, by means of MaxEnt program. The models developed with MaxEnt showed good predictivity with AUC > 0.80 for the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios projected, respectively, for 2055 and 2085. The results showed that the annual thermal amplitude followed by altitude appear to be the main factors of the spatiotemporal distribution of Aleppo pine in the study area. Under current conditions, only 20% of the territory seems favourable to the presence of the Aleppo pine. However, future predictions expect an extension of the areas classified as “moderately favourable” to the Aleppo pine. In response to climate changes, the Aurasian Aleppo pine may display two contrasted tendencies: a progressive evolution in the north, and a regressive evolution in the south of the Aurès region as well as a displacement of suitable areas for Aleppo pine to the north.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 87%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using the MaxEnt model for assessing the impact of climate change on the Aurasian Aleppo pine distribution in Algeria

Garah

Bentouati

2019

Afr J Ecol

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“…Diante deste contexto, a modelagem do nicho ecológico de espécies tem-se destacado como uma das principais ferramentas para a investigação da relação entre as espécies e o clima, permitindo análises que possam contribuir para a proteção e a conservação da biodiversidade, para a escolha das espécies vizando a restauração de ecossistemas (Gastón et al 2014;López-Tirado & Hidalgo 2016) e no entendimento dos padrões de distribuição geográfica em uma análise regional (Siqueira & Durigan 2007;Rodrigues et al 2015).…”

Section: Veja Materials Suplementar Emunclassified

Impacto de mudanças climáticas sobre a distribuição geográfica potencial de Ilex paraguariensis

2018

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Resumo Foi modelado o nicho climático e avaliamos o impacto de mudanças climáticas sobre a distribuição geográfica potencial de Ilex paraguariensis. Esta espécie apresenta elevada importância sociocultural, econômica e ecológica na porção sul da Floresta Atlântica. As áreas de ocorrência foram definidas por meio das coordenadas geográficas das localidades onde a espécie foi registrada. Foram consideradas oito variáveis climáticas obtidas a partir da base de dados do WorldClim. A modelagem do nicho climático da espécie foi realizada por meio de dez algoritmos. A predição da área de adequabilidade climática, contemporânea e futura (2070) da espécie, foi realizada a partir do consenso dos ajustes com boa performance (TSS > 0,40). Para predições futuras, foram considerados cenários de mudanças climáticas otimista (RCP4.5) e pessimista (RCP8.5), com base no quinto relatório do IPCC. Verificou-se que a espécie ocorre, predominantemente, no domínio Atlântico. Enquanto que no cenário otimista, I. paraguariensis apresentou redução de 65,8% de sua área de adequabilidade climática, no cenário mais pessimista, a redução foi de 82,1%, sendo as perdas concentradas nas áreas periféricas das projeções de ocorrência.

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“…Increasingly, there is a need to use environmental data to identify those areas that might be candidate locations for species translocations (e.g. López-Tirado & Hidalgo 2015; Fois et al 2016a). However, despite their usefulness and large applicability, to our knowledge there are no examples of distribution models that use local extinctions in the Mediterranean territories.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the Mediterranean Basin, climatic anomalies (e.g. López-Tirado & Hidalgo 2015; Kaky & Gilbert 2016) and human-related factors, such as human trampling and land use change (e.g. Lavergne et al 2005; Fenu et al .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using extinctions in species distribution models to evaluate and predict threats: a contribution to plant conservation planning on the island of Sardinia

et al. 2017

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Recent extinction rates suggest that humans are now causing the sixth mass extinction, and the Mediterranean islands are at the forefront of many of the environmental issues involved. This study provides an alternative approach for investigating documented local plant extinctions that occurred in Sardinia (western Mediterranean) during the last half century. A total of 190 local extinctions of 62 plant species were used to investigate the independent effects of eight ecological and anthropogenic variables and to model the areas of potential extinctions where plant conservation efforts could be focused. If all analysed plant species were considered together, ecological factors explained local extinctions more than anthropogenic factors. The independent effects of each factor considerably varied among species of different lifeforms and altitude ranges. Accordingly, distribution models of local extinctions outscored areas that are potentially rich in plant species with conservation interest, but which are particularly affected by humans. This paper suggests a reproducible, operational framework for analysing which extinction factors may play important roles in similar contexts and where they might be relevant

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Ecological niche modelling of three Mediterranean pine species in the south of Spain: a tool for afforestation/reforestation programs in the twenty-first century

Cited by 25 publications

References 55 publications

Using the MaxEnt model for assessing the impact of climate change on the Aurasian Aleppo pine distribution in Algeria

Using the MaxEnt model for assessing the impact of climate change on the Aurasian Aleppo pine distribution in Algeria

Impacto de mudanças climáticas sobre a distribuição geográfica potencial de Ilex paraguariensis

Using extinctions in species distribution models to evaluate and predict threats: a contribution to plant conservation planning on the island of Sardinia

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