Ecological niche models of biotic interactions predict increasing pest risk to olive cultivars with changing climate

Abstract

Simple, single-species approaches in distributional ecology leave open questions of possible roles of biotic interactions. We sought to understand impacts of climate change on current and future potential distributions of Olea europaea sensu lato (host) and Bactrocera oleae (parasite) in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA), taking into account potential interspecific interactions. We used ecological niche modeling approaches: For biotic interactions, an initial host model was incorporated into the calibration of the parasite model and an initial parasite model was incorporated into calibration of the host model, as host and parasite populations may respond to the presence of the other species. Absence of olive fruits could reduce the flight ability of the fly parasite, whereas presence of the parasite may make a site less suitable for the olives. The host model was improved by inclusion of the parasite information; the converse was not true for the parasite model. Our results anticipated a significant reduction in the potential distribution of Olea europeae in Africa and Europe under future climate scenarios; in contrast, future climates appear more broadly favorable for the parasite species, which poses new and increasing risks for olive cultivation in the Mediterranean region.

Climatic Suitability and Distribution Overlap of Sawflies (Hymenoptera: Diprionidae) and Threatened Populations of Pinaceae

“…In general, when studying the environmental suitability of insect pest and their hosts, there is a tendency for an adequate match between both niches [69]. In the case of the sawflies (Hymenoptera: Diprionidae) here studied, it seems that there is a correspondence between each modeled niche and the observed distribution of the hosts.…”

Ecological niche model transferability of the white star apple (Chrysophyllum albidum G. Don) in the context of climate and global changes

“…The SDMs (in geographic space), also known as ecological niche models (ENMs) (in environmental space), explore the relationship between species occurrences and environmental variables to predict the distribution of species at present and in the future and therefore support policy decisions on biodiversity conservation and sustainable uses 8 , 9 . SDMs are widely used to answer many research questions and provide guidance for biodiversity conservation in various fields of investigation such as the discovery of new species 10 ; identification of potential invasion hotspots of alien species 11 , 12 ; predictions of range-shifting species and pest risks to useful plants 13 , 14 ; identification and characterization of suitable areas of useful species and contribution to their conservation 15 – 35 ; identification of spatial pattern of species abundance and richness 36 – 38 ; understanding the species richness patterns in response to climate change 39 ; identification and characterization of fragmentation risks of species habitats 40 ; public health, risk maps and risk prevention of vector-borne diseases like Ebola fever, Lassa fever, dengue, African swine fever etc. 41 – 45 ; model transfers to guide species relocations, introductions and reintroductions; promotion of species-habitat conservation and forecasting areas vulnerable to invasion ; develop plans for habitat management, quantify potential of unoccupied habitat, facilitate long-term species persistence 46 – 50 .…”

Global ecological niche conservatism and evolution in Olea species

“…Climate change is a major factor in shaping geographic distributions of plant species ( Thuiller et al, 2005 ), and (in the longer term) a significant selective force that causes evolutionary change ( Franks et al, 2014 ). Ecological niches are features of species and populations that summarize population-level responses to climate (and other dimensions of the environment), and as such are the target of natural selection ( Lewontin, 1970 , Walther et al, 2002 ) and biotic interactions ( Ashraf et al, 2021 ). Nonetheless, the degree to which niches are conserved or are dynamic in evolving lineages remains a matter of debate ( Losos, 2008 , Araújo et al, 2013 ).…”