Ecological niche shifts affect the potential invasive risk of Phytolacca americana (Phytolaccaceae) in China

Abstract

Background Predicting the potential habitat of Phytolacca americana, a high-risk invasive species, can help provide a scientific basis for its quarantine and control strategies. Using the optimized MaxEnt model, we applied the latest climate data, CMIP6, to predict the distribution of potential risk zones and their change patterns for P. americana under current and future (SSP126, SSP245, SSP585) climate conditions, followed by invasion potential analysis. Results The predictions of MaxEnt model based on R language optimization were highly accurate. A significantly high area of 0.8703 was observed for working characteristic curve (AUC value) of subject and the kappa value was 0.8074. Under the current climate conditions, the risk zones for P. americana were mainly distributed in Sichuan, Chongqing, Guizhou, Hunan, and Guangxi provinces. The contribution rate of each climatic factor of P. americana was calculated using the jackknife test. The four factors with the highest contribution rate included minimum temperature of coldest month (bio6, 51.4%), the monthly mean diurnal temperature difference (bio2, 27.9%), precipitation of the driest quarter (bio17, 4.9%), and the warmest seasonal precipitation (bio12, 4.3%). Conclusion Under future climatic conditions, the change in the habitat pattern of P. americana generally showed a migration toward the Yangtze River Delta region and the southeastern coastal region of China. This migration exhibited an expansion trend, highlighting the strong future invasiveness of the species. Based on the predictions, targeted prevention and control strategies for areas with significant changes in P. americana were developed. Therefore, this study emphasizes the need of an integrated approach to effectively prevent the further spread of invasive plants.

Reconstructing the Invasive History and Potential Distribution Prediction of Amaranthus palmeri in China

“…For the invaded area, considering the high cost and inefficiency of manual and mechanical control, and the limitation of chemical control to cause environmental pollution, biological and ecological control techniques should be adopted to prevent its colonization and dispersal. Additionally, the government should create an invasive species information database to improve information exchange and sharing between regions, allowing for timely invasion prediction, risk assessment, and emergency prevention and control measures to prevent the predicted proliferation from becoming a reality [32]. Although our data suggests that A. palmeri could not severely invade the ecoregions listed in southern Inner Mongolia and eastern Gansu, we need to prevent the escalated risk of A. palmeri by extreme climatic events in these ecoregions.…”

“…Moreover, the environmental factors were eliminated with a correlation coefficient (|r|) ≥ 0.8 and low contribution (Supplementary Tables S2 and S3, Figure S1). Furthermore, the jackknife was used to measure the importance of each variable in the model [32]. Subsequently, 25 environmental factors both displaying statistically and biologically significant for the purpose of modeling were selected (Figure S2).…”

Modeling the Potential Distribution Patterns of the Invasive Plant Species Phytolacca americana in China in Response to Climate Change

“…It is also critical for sustaining agroforestry production, conserving diversity, maintaining productivity, and restoring ecological environments. Presently, research on the invasive species P. americana primarily focuses on its invasion mechanisms, biological characteristics, and ecological hazards [ 27 , 28 , 29 ]. However, there is limited domestic and international research concerning its suitable distribution areas and potential sites.…”

Importance of Habitat Context in Modelling Risk Maps for Two Established Invasive Alien Plant Species: The Case of Ailanthus altissima and Phytolacca americana in Slovenia (Europe)

“…Swingle) and American pokeweed ( Phytolacca americana L.). Predicting the potential habitat of high-risk invasive species can provide a scientific basis for quarantine and control strategies [ 20 ]. The tree of heaven is a deciduous tree found naturally in the northeastern and central parts of China and Taiwan [ 21 , 22 ].…”