Ecological selectivity of the emerging mass extinction in the oceans

Payne, Jonathan L.; Bush, Andrew M.; Heim, Noel A.; Knope, Matthew L.; McCauley, Douglas J.

doi:10.1126/science.aaf2416

Cited by 170 publications

(154 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…Hence, body size in itself is not likely to be the cause of extinction risk; rather, it is the combination of fishing mortality and body size that determines risk. Much like the terrestrial mammals of the Late Quaternary 22 , marine megafauna are more susceptible to population decline because they are more sought after 23 , and the rate at which their populations can replace themselves is low relative to the fishing mortality rate. This is due to late age at maturity, low maximum rates of population increase and (often) strong density dependence in recruitment 24 , which gives large fishes reduced resilience to fishing, compared with smaller species.…”

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confidence: 99%

Coherent assessments of Europe’s marine fishes show regional divergence and megafauna loss

et al. 2017

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Europe has a long tradition of exploiting marine fishes and is promoting marine economic activity through its Blue Growth strategy. This increase in anthropogenic pressure, along with climate change, threatens the biodiversity of fishes and food security. Here, we examine the conservation status of 1,020 species of European marine fishes and identify factors that contribute to their extinction risk. Large fish species (greater than 1.5 m total length) are most at risk; half of these are threatened with extinction, predominantly sharks, rays and sturgeons. This analysis was based on the latest International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) European regional Red List of marine fishes, which was coherent with assessments of the status of fish stocks carried out independently by fisheries management agencies: no species classified by IUCN as threatened were considered sustainable by these agencies. A remarkable geographic divergence in stock status was also evident: in northern Europe, most stocks were not overfished, whereas in the Mediterranean Sea, almost all stocks were overfished. As Europe proceeds with its sustainable Blue Growth agenda, two main issues stand out as needing priority actions in relation to its marine fishes: the conservation of marine fish megafauna and the sustainability of Mediterranean fish stocks.arine fishes exhibit high biodiversity 1,2 and have been culturally and nutritionally important throughout human history 3 . Europe, in particular, has a well-documented history of exploiting marine fish populations, written records of which commence in the classical works of ancient Greece. Although this historical exploitation has undoubtedly altered populations 4,5 and changed many seascapes 6 , marine defaunation in the region has not been as great as in terrestrial systems 7 . However, the use of ocean space and resources is increasing due to Europe's Blue Growth strategy 8 , the nutritional requirements of an expanding human population are growing 9,10 and marine ecosystems will experience unusually rapid changes in future due to climate change 11,12 . Consequently there are imminent threats both to European marine biodiversity and fish resources 13 . It is important, therefore, to assess the threats of extinction to fish species and to ensure consistency in the management approach by the various agencies involved.We analysed data on the conservation status of 1,020 species of Europe's marine fishes from the recent International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List assessments 14 to identify characteristics that make Europe's fishes most susceptible to extinction risk. We then compared the Red List with 115 fish stock assessments (of 31 species) made by intergovernmental agencies charged with providing advice on the exploitation of commercial fishes. Previous comparisons of this sort applied criteria under various modelling assumptions [15][16][17] or limited the comparison to biomass reference points 18 . ResultsOf the 1,020 European marine fish species that were asses...

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confidence: 99%

Coherent assessments of Europe’s marine fishes show regional divergence and megafauna loss

et al. 2017

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“…In communities where species trophic position was related to response traits, and trait covariation was positive, trophic structure increased ecosystem vulnerability, resulting in abrupt declines in function once the least sensitive species in trophic level went extinct. Extensions of work on biodiversity and ecosystem function beyond single trophic levels are rare, but given that trophic position is associated with increased extinction risk (Payne et al 2016) our results suggest that trophic structure may be an important, but underestimated, contributor to ecosystem vulnerability. Similarly, when response-effect trait covariation was negative, trophic structure decreased the resiliency of functions associated with compensation.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 82%

Predicting ecosystem vulnerability to biodiversity loss from community composition

Heilpern

Weeks

Naeem

2018

Ecology

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Ecosystems vary widely in their responses to biodiversity change, with some losing function dramatically while others are highly resilient. However, generalizations about how species- and community-level properties determine these divergent ecosystem responses have been elusive because potential sources of variation (e.g., trophic structure, compensation, functional trait diversity) are rarely evaluated in conjunction. Ecosystem vulnerability, or the likely change in ecosystem function following biodiversity change, is influenced by two types of species traits: response traits that determine species' individual sensitivities to environmental change, and effect traits that determine a species' contribution to ecosystem function. Here we extend the response-effect trait framework to quantify ecosystem vulnerability and show how trophic structure, within-trait variance, and among-trait covariance affect ecosystem vulnerability by linking extinction order and functional compensation. Using in silico trait-based simulations we found that ecosystem vulnerability increased when response and effect traits positively covaried, but this increase was attenuated by decreasing trait variance. Contrary to expectations, in these communities, both functional diversity and trophic structure increased ecosystem vulnerability. In contrast, ecosystem functions were resilient when response and effect traits covaried negatively, and variance had a positive effect on resiliency. Our results suggest that although biodiversity loss is often associated with decreases in ecosystem functions, such effects are conditional on trophic structure, and the variation within and covariation among response and effect traits. Taken together, these three factors can predict when ecosystems are poised to lose or gain function with ongoing biodiversity change.

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“…This relationship (Supplementary Equation S4) was used to parameterise probabilistic, numerical simulations that test how alternative extinction scenarios might affect sediment mixing depths. As environmental forcing in natural systems can target different components of the community64, we consider simulations in which species go extinct at random (, where n = the number of species) versus extirpations ordered by body size (largest expire first) or rarity (least abundant expire first). As the functional consequences of extinction also depend on the response of surviving species, we developed models in which species either do not exhibit compensatory responses or in which the abundance (numeric compensation) or biomass (biomass compensation) of the surviving community are held constant following extinction.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Consequences of biodiversity loss diverge from expectation due to post-extinction compensatory responses

Thomsen

Garcia

Bolam

et al. 2017

Sci Rep

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Consensus has been reached that global biodiversity loss impairs ecosystem functioning and the sustainability of services beneficial to humanity. However, the ecosystem consequences of extinction in natural communities are moderated by compensatory species dynamics, yet these processes are rarely accounted for in impact assessments and seldom considered in conservation programmes. Here, we use marine invertebrate communities to parameterise numerical models of sediment bioturbation – a key mediator of biogeochemical cycling – to determine whether post-extinction compensatory mechanisms alter biodiversity-ecosystem function relations following non-random extinctions. We find that compensatory dynamics lead to trajectories of sediment mixing that diverge from those without compensation, and that the form, magnitude and variance of each probabilistic distribution is highly influenced by the type of compensation and the functional composition of surviving species. Our findings indicate that the generalized biodiversity-function relation curve, as derived from multiple empirical investigations of random species loss, is unlikely to yield representative predictions for ecosystem properties in natural systems because the influence of post-extinction community dynamics are under-represented. Recognition of this problem is fundamental to management and conservation efforts, and will be necessary to ensure future plans and adaptation strategies minimize the adverse impacts of the biodiversity crisis.

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Ecological selectivity of the emerging mass extinction in the oceans

Cited by 170 publications

References 48 publications

Coherent assessments of Europe’s marine fishes show regional divergence and megafauna loss

Coherent assessments of Europe’s marine fishes show regional divergence and megafauna loss

Predicting ecosystem vulnerability to biodiversity loss from community composition

Consequences of biodiversity loss diverge from expectation due to post-extinction compensatory responses

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