City greenbelts or greenways are usually created to achieve multiple goals, often including conservation of agricultural or range land, preservation of unique environments and heritage, recreation, and creation of transportation and utility corridors. Tradeoffs may be required in meeting these multiple goals. Analysis of potential future trajectories for urban development with such greenbelts is important to characterize the drivers and spatially explicit patterns of change that may ensue. Spatially explicit multi-criteria analysis provides one approach for examination of driver and patterns. In this paper, we use a spatial multi-criteria analysis shell (MCAS-S) to explore two case studies: (1) a 1250 ha subset of the Toronto Greenbelt in the Durham region of Ontario (Canada); and (2) the Balcones Canyonlands Conservation Plan area for endangered species protection on the western side of Austin, Texas (USA). In both cases, urbanization and encroachment are major pressures. The study areas were described by GIS data layers grouped into themes that capture major competing factors-e.g., residential preference, physical constraints to development, agricultural and environmental assets, tourism, and infrastructure development. Rules were constructed that combined preference for access to green space with limits to development, and a range of scenario layers were created to indicate likely future development areas. Development in the Toronto Greenbelt was mostly associated with areas of low likelihood of development, probably because areas that met all requirements-limited impact on agriculture and environment but helpful for tourism and infrastructure-were difficult to find. By contrast, development in the Austin BCCP was associated with urban infill modified by proximity to preserves. Although the results are only associative and not causative, they illustrate the difficulties of satisfying multiple competing goals in greenbelts, and the tendency for preserved patches to be incrementally surrounded by development. [