Econometric analysis of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and meteorological factors in South Asia

Abstract

The pandemic has affected almost 74 million people worldwide as of 17 December 2020. This is the first study that attempts to examine the nexus between the confirmed COVID-19 cases, deaths, meteorological factors, and the air pollutant namely PM2.5 in six South Asian countries, from 1 March 2020 to 30 June 2020, using the advanced econometric techniques that are robust to heterogeneity across nations. Our findings confirm (1) a strong cross-sectional dependence and significant correlation between COVID-19 cases, deaths, meteorological factors, and air pollutant; (2) long-term relationship between all the meteorological variables, air pollutant, and COVID-19 death cases; (3) temperature, air pressure, and humidity exhibit a significant impact on the COVID-19 confirmed cases, while COVID-19 confirmed cases and air pollutant PM2.5 have a statistically significant impact on the COVID-19 death cases. In this way, the conclusion that high temperature and high humidity increase the transmission of the COVID-19 infections can also be applied to the regions with greater transmission rates, where the minimum temperature is mostly over 21°C and humidity ranges around 80% for months. From the findings, it is evident that majority of the meteorological factors and air pollutant PM2.5 exhibit significant negative and positive effects on the number of COVID-19 confirmed cases and death cases in the six countries under study. Air pollutant PM 2.5 provides more particle surface for the virus to stick and get transported longer distances. Hence, higher particulate pollution levels in the air increase COVID-19 transmission in these six South Asian countries. This information is vital for the government and public health authorities in formulating relevant policies. The study contributes both practically and theoretically to the concerned field of pandemic management. Highlights• To examine the nexus among the COVID-19 confirmed cases, deaths, meteorological factors, and the air pollutant namely PM2.5 in six South Asian countries, from 1 March 2020 to 30 June 2020, employing advanced econometric techniques • Strong cross-sectional dependence and significant correlation among COVID-19 cases, deaths, meteorological factors, and the air pollutant • Temperature air pressure and humidity exhibit a significant impact on the COVID-19 confirmed cases in the six countries • COVID-19 confirmed cases and air pollutant PM2.5 have a statistically significant impact on the COVID-19 death cases • Results assist government and public health authorities in formulating the policies for containing, mitigating, and surveillance of COVID-19 in different countries

Modelling spatial variations of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19): evidence from a global perspective

“…That is, cities that had high air pollution and low wind speed had a higher transmission of the virus. Jain et al (2021) used advanced econometric techniques to examine the relationship between COVID-19 cases, deaths, and meteorological factors. COVID-19 cases and air pollutants were shown to have a statistically significant impact on COVID-19 deaths.…”

Impact of COVID-19 on deaths from respiratory diseases: Panel data evidence from Chile

“…The authors concluded that high temperature and humidity increase the transmission of COVID-19 and that this can also be applied to regions with higher transmission rates, where the minimum temperature is mostly above 21◦C and the humidity hovers at approximately 80% for months. Additionally, air pollutants (PM 2.5) exhibit significant negative and positive effects on the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases [ 10 ]. Other investigations have also used individual heterogeneity models as statistical methodologies to examine the relationships between meteorological variables and environmental pollution with respect to confirmed cases of COVID-19 and mortality, e.g.…”

Determination of vulnerable regions of SARS-CoV-2 in Malaysia using meteorology and air quality data

“…In addition, there are epidemiological and pathophysiological evidence suggesting an impact of emission levels on the upper and lower respiratory system in conjunction with various meteorological factors such as temperature, humidity, rainfall and atmospheric pressure (Braat et al, 2002;Muhling et al, 1984;Watson et al, 2006). Numerous studies have highlighted the relationship between meteorological parameters relating air quality and COVID-19 spread globally (Tosepu et al, 2020;Kumar, 2020;Ma et al, 2020;Guo et al, 2021;Jain et al, 2021;Shankar et al, 2021). Furthermore, meteorological variables have also been related to other diseases including cardiovascular diseases and respiratory diseases have also been reported (Bartzokas et al, 2004).…”