Econometric analysis on the effect of port state control inspections on the probability of casualty

Knapp, Sabine; Franses, Philip Hans

doi:10.1016/j.marpol.2006.11.004

Cited by 88 publications

(54 citation statements)

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“…Knapp and Franses analyzed the effect of PSC inspections on the probability of casualty according to targeting ships, ship types, flag states, classification societies, and detained vessels. One of the conclusions drawn in this study is that black-listed flag states showed a higher probability of a serious casualty compared to the gray-and white-listed flag states [27]. Robert and Marlow investigated casualties in dry bulk shipping from 1963-1996 and stressed that the risk would increase with ship age and the ship's flag of registration [28].…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 84%

Risk Assessment in the Istanbul Strait Using Black Sea MOU Port State Control Inspections

Kara¹

2016

Sustainability

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Abstract:The Istanbul Strait has intense maritime traffic while, at the same time, it poses significant navigational challenges. Due to these properties, there is always a high risk arising from maritime shipping in this region. Especially, substandard ships threaten life, as well as the marine environment. In this aspect, Black Sea Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) Port State Control Inspections are important for maritime safety in the Istanbul Strait, because they directly reflect the performance of ships passing through the Istanbul Strait. Stringent and effective inspections assist in the enhancement of navigation safety and help to develop sustainable environment management. In this context, this study aims to assess maritime safety for the Strait region concerning passing flag states. Firstly, to assess the performance of flag states in general, the Black Sea MOU Black-Grey-White lists were generated for the period 2004-2014 and the change in the performance of these flags was examined. Secondly, the risk level of each flag state passing from the Strait region was determined using the method of weighted points based on the Black-Grey-White List, deficiency index level, casualty index level, and passing index level.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 84%

Risk Assessment in the Istanbul Strait Using Black Sea MOU Port State Control Inspections

Kara¹

2016

Sustainability

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“…On the other hand, if experts are serving as the source of data, their knowledge might be incomplete. Furthermore, although maritime traffic safety regulations set certain bounds to the vessels, the crew, and to the shipping companies, different ships, shipping companies, or flags can vary widely in their safety performance (Li and Wonham, 1999;Håvold, 2005;Ek and Akselsson, 2005;Knapp and Franses, 2007). Finally, a model is always a simplification of the reality, and the chosen modeling technique, the set of variables and their interactions can never capture a perfect picture of the problem to be modeled.…”

Section: Coping With Uncertaintymentioning

confidence: 99%

Bayesian networks for maritime traffic accident prevention: Benefits and challenges

Hänninen¹

2014

Accident Analysis & Prevention

175

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“…As incident risk factors vary widely across different ship types (Knapp and Franses, 2007), the risk analysis is performed separately for six ship types: general cargo vessels, dry bulk carriers, container ships, tankers, passenger ships, and other vessels. Our analysis covers a wide class of commercial vessels operating under the legislative framework of the SOLAS (Safety of Life at Sea) convention and extends results that have previously been reported for fishing vessels, as in Jin et al (2001), Wang et al (2005), and Wu et al (2009).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of wind strength and wave height on ship incident risk: Regional trends and seasonality

Heij

Knapp

2015

Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment

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a b s t r a c tOceanographic conditions like wind strength and wave height affect the risk of shipping incidents. Seasonal variations and trends in these effects are studied for weather-related incidents and pollution incidents, for six major ship types and for six regions across the globe. The employed database of more than five million observations combines information from various sources on oceanographic conditions, ship particulars, and incidents. The magnitude of wind and wave effects is found to vary by ship type, region, season, and period, and most of these effects are larger during the autumn and winter season and in recent periods. IntroductionMany maritime administrations and coastal states are nowadays trying to become more proactive in their risk mitigation strategies. Current maritime risk assessments often still ignore various risk dimensions and associated uncertainties (Merrick and Van Dorp, 2006). Van der Hoorn and Knapp (2014) propose a multi-layered approach to incorporate ship-specific risk, vessel traffic densities, and location-specific conditions such as bathymetry, wind, waves, currents, and coastal sensitivities to pollution.For the North Atlantic, it has been reported that oceanographic conditions are changing, with rising sea levels, larger wave height and wind strength, changing wind patterns, and increasing frequency and force of storms (Woolf and Challenor, 2002;Tsimplis et al., 2005;European Parliament, 2007; IPCC, 2007). Meanwhile, new shipping routes are opening up, for example, due to the melting Arctic. Such developments necessitate investigation of the relation between oceanographic conditions and maritime safety, including vessel design aspects like stability and long-term wave stress on the hull structure (IMO, 1995(IMO, , 2005a. Knapp et al. (2011) study the effect of wind strength and wave height on the risk of weather-related incidents for the North Atlantic. The current paper extends this type of risk evaluation to a global level and evaluates risk of weather-related incidents and pollution incidents for six regions across the globe. The focus is on seasonal effects and trends (changes over time) in wind speed and wave height with their impact on incident risk for the following six regions: North Atlantic; East Africa and Indian Ocean; Japan, Korea, and South Chinese Sea; South Atlantic and West Africa; North Pacific; South Pacific and Antarctica. Other relevant physical factors, such as directions of wind and waves and the strength and direction of currents, are not available in the database and are therefore not included in the analysis.

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Econometric analysis on the effect of port state control inspections on the probability of casualty

Cited by 88 publications

References 1 publication

Risk Assessment in the Istanbul Strait Using Black Sea MOU Port State Control Inspections

Risk Assessment in the Istanbul Strait Using Black Sea MOU Port State Control Inspections

Bayesian networks for maritime traffic accident prevention: Benefits and challenges

Effects of wind strength and wave height on ship incident risk: Regional trends and seasonality

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