Economic Assessment of Permafrost Degradation Effects on Healthcare Facilities in the Russian Arctic

Abstract

The methodology and results of economic assessment and forecasting of the consequences of the most negative global climate change IPCC scenario (RCP 8.5) representative for the conditions of the Russian Arctic in the form of thawing and degradation of permafrost for healthcare facilities in eight Arctic regions of the Russian Federation are discussed. It is shown that the additional costs associated with these consequences for the maintenance and restoration of healthcare facilities in 2021–2050 may amount to about ₽60 bln, or about ₽2 bln per year (in 2021 prices) at the average rate of permafrost degradation and increase thawing depth, rising to ₽219 bln (₽7.5 bln annually) under the maximum expected damage.

Risks for Public Health and Social Infrastructure in Russian Arctic under Climate Change and Permafrost Degradation

“…The costs in the health-care sector due to permafrost degradation may reach 3% of the total annual health-care budget. Depending upon the rates of permafrost degradation, the demand for new housing construction will be between 280,000 m 2 and 1,500,000 m 2 [23,24]. New housing will be needed to compensate for the losses in the residential sector due to permafrost degradation.…”

“…The economic losses due to destruction of infrastructure objects in the conditions of permafrost degradation were estimated in [23,24] with a spatial model that linked the permafrost degradation rates to the associated infrastructure maintenance costs. Various infrastructure objects were counted and geopositioned on the permafrost distribution map.…”

“…A detailed methodology of the economic assessment of damage to various sectors of the economy due to permafrost degradation can be found in [22][23][24][25]. The basic equation for cost assessment contains the following variables: the unit costs of restoration of the destroyed infrastructure objects of different types, total damage in natural units (the area of the buildings or the length of the roads), and the climatic coefficient calculated from the climatic geotechnical model (Table 3 in [24]).…”